GBP/JPY - Elliot Wave Discussion

I know there are a few on here who trade using EWT, so was hoping for some input on the following chart.

I have poured over the GBP/JPY chart this morning and this is my findings.

Firstly, the yellow trendlines are what I call my predominant trednlines. Blue ones are intermedate trendlines within bigger moves etc.

Looking at the following chart, I believe the GBP/JPY is in a descending range. We bounced off major ssupport trendlines in Jan 2012, from here I believe we are heading to the upper descending trendline.


GBPJPY_-_Elliot_Wave_-_18-8-14.png


link - dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/63552262/Cha...t_Wave_-_18-8-14.png

Closer view


GBPJPY_-_Elliot_Wave_closer_-_18-8-14.png


link - dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/63552262/Cha...ser%29_-_18-8-14.png


I believe we could have completed a wave 1 on the way back up (??). I have put the intermediate waves in to show my thinking. From here I believe a triangle is forming, and if correct, a break on the downside for a wave 2 correction will be in play. I have forget what fib extension you should really be targetting for a wave 2 correction, but I have placed it between the 50 & 61.8% extensions from the swing high to swing low as shown on the chart. From there I have projected a wave 3 @ the 161.8% fib extension of Wave 1 (I have noted there is no real confluence at this part, s this is just an assumption - the previous high to low 61.8% fib (light green)@ [price] 19940/20000 is also a possibility). From there I have a wave 4 which does not breach the original wave 1 and from there a wave 5. The Wave 5 has several areas of confluence with the MAJOR low to high fib retracement of 23.6% along with the recent high to low retracement of 78.6% and perhaps more importantly the major descending trendline.

Of course I understand that the chances of this playing out as above is low, but I just would like to know that (1) my basic understanding of the theory is ok and (2) does anyone have a similar outlook?

am short on GBP/JPY - target = 1.6866

long term trade, could be a good xmas pressie.

technical to follow later - 4hr chart.

Thanks for the heads here Wavesurfer.

I looked at his, and it looked good, so followed you here. Up nicely and stop moved to profit.
Nice one, thanks for taking the time and posting, your posts are appreciated as always.

Regards,
trendfriend.

here's the chart ...enjoy this is long term trade right upto year end or when targets get hit, so must give it time.





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/JPY%20%28DFB%29.png

1.7327 X 2 close required > 1.6866 > 1.6360

rgds WS

171656 that goes watch it dump... still running with the plan....







dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/JPY_update%20%28DFB%29.png

Regards,

WS

Smashed .... bang bang - red target in sight ....

WaveSurfer wrote: 171656 that goes watch it dump... still running with the plan....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/JPY_update%20%28DFB%29.png

Regards,

WS