AML - Shorting area

I always find that any major resistance and high on a weekly is worth shorting. Especially if it also meets the top of an oblique channel. RSI bearish divergence is always good too.

Targets:




409 (maybe 410 for round number) would certainly be 1st weight (both the 38.2% fib & previous resistance level). After that, probably the 200sma or the oblique support trendline, - whichever 1st.

This is exactly the sort of setup I've been losing a lot of money on by shorting. All the MA's from 200 to 5 are firmly up. That in itself means that this trade is a counter trend trade. In this situation I find that the indicators are most likely to lead to a pull back to a position of value for a 'long entry'. If you want to go short my advise would be very careful and have a very clear idea of your exit. If it pulls back at all, it's likely to be 418 I think before continuing up again. Check out OBV as well, rising nicely. My guess is 440 will be taken out and the SP will head up into unknow territory. Take care.

Hi Shotry,

I hear what your saying, and see your point.

Personally, I don't mind trading against the trend if I have clear targets in mind and I am fairly confident I can be about the support or resistance level.

I have an order in for 435 on this in the case it tests the high again.

You are 100% correct in saying this is clearly in an up trend - but I am not uncomfortable trading in this situation because I constantly keep tabs on the short term charts so feel like I can keep tabs.

Looking at the 4H/1H charts i'm seeing weakness creep into at these current levels too.

But I appreciate the feedback, and there is every chance you are spot on tbh.

Are you an exclusive trade with the trend trader?

Absolutely not Clarkey. In fact I'm trying to overcome a bias towards the countertrend at this very time. But I have been losing money on shorts that look very similar to the AML at the moment. I was setting too little store in the MA's and too much in the indicators. As you say, trades like that are ok, but you need to recognize that it's a quick in and out affair, not a trend change. Shorted GKN for 6 points on thursday night/close Friday. Again not with the trend, but it had clearly run ahead of itself. My trade was linked to breach of it's envelope near resistance, but I was out quickly .

Ahh - thats where it perhaps matches my personality more.

I have a tendency to not be able to stay in a trade that long. In the past I have snatched at profits. Something I am working on, and have started to show signs of improvement - but for a trade like this, I completely agree - this isn't a trend change.

The best thing about a trend change is, it will happen in stages, and each stage has the potential to trade, therefore you don't have to be in the move from the start.

Sounds like we're on the same wavelength here Clarky, but I'm trying to change because what we're trying to do it take the 'hard yards', we're missing the easier more relaxed stuff. At the end of the day our individual personalities will dictate what we're capapble of or even good at so I think if we get something to work for us, run with it.