Hi Remo Jack,W.S and all

GKP-What a of a share- currently
What are the support levels to go and next the best re- entry prices as have been totally shocked how quiclky this stock has fallen or is it a case sell in may and don't get until judgement day

Finding it very difficult to follow your posts Regard Tej

- it's spooky alright...

Yes, the correction from the top does look very familiar. Only thing is, the count on that S&P chart suffers the same problem - it's got a C wave with and abc sub-structure and it's not a wave W, Y or Z.

But you're right - at least we're looking at similar options; it's just a few details we don't agree on and they're not really significant.

Thanks.

J - good discussion.... we have two alts... but this structure still looks good to me ...

also check this out looks familiar ?

www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28766.html










lets see how this develops - either way - we both more or less agree how this is likley to play out in some way shape or form...

be free from 14:00 onwards on chat - if want to discuss J

WS, can we re-visit your idea of an irregular flat wave 2 as the post 202.75p move please? Here's your chart: www.chartsview.co.uk/media/kunena/attach...weekly_irreg_Alt.JPG

I can get the count up to 450p but after that it ought to be a major wave C, right? In which case it ought to have 5 subwaves as an impuse but that's not how you've counted it and nor can I get 450p onwards to fit this pattern. I think it has to be something different.

I'm still working on it. I love puzzles!

Ha ha! Nice one WS!

I'm pretty sure those same guys have got their eyes on triggering a margin call for IG's clients who are 99% long, many from much higher levels than this too!

Bottom's may not be just wiped but spanked lol!

let's get confirmation 1st... plenty of pips to be had if we think what is coming next after this move down is completed.....

patience & confirmation the key to this.

no guarantee but could go this way....

Mr Market (seller) say's to to another Mr Market (buyer) vis a vis - let's create a double bottom to suck some punters in & they'll be saying bottoms in, bottoms in !! ...let's pump it up then pull the rug out of em & see who's bottom has really been wiped

Agreed, WS. I think that's the best case scenario here now. I've got a feeling that the monthly cloud base at 103p might give rise to the wave 4 bounce. There's a support at 104.25 and the 78.6% Fib of the 4.5p to 450p move at 100p too.

That's just a guess of course. No choice but to wait and see really - can't trade a guess can we?!

ideal scenario would be this is a 4 up to cap around 161 area , then a quick smack down to take out recent lows and putting in +divergence on larger timeframes... that be really nice.

price first before anything else.

New Month - New beginning - keep a close eye on those larger timeframes - monthly /weekly candles.

nice bounce this morning from retest of previous lows - 1hr + divergence, macd X, lower high... be watching 145 > 161 with interest...

indeed remo...and the top in between that period was 97/98p i pointed this in one of my previous posts ...

seems confluence of price is starting to appear...

purple line.. 50% of lower pitch fork, previous low @ 88p etc etc.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_monthlyv1.JPG
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_monthlyv3.JPG

diver993 wrote:
good old zak He does draw a load of lines through imaginary points.
Most of his charts are like this and i personally dont agree with the way he does it but some people do. He regularly forces things. This is how most people probably draw lines so they are never accurate enough to place a trade based on this.
with regards to 10p predictions. Its possible but would require some thing worse than the court case to bring that price. who knows???
If 130 is breached then lower prices will follow and there is a load of supports before 10p .

since everyones looking at a short term chart i thought id put up a long term chart. This is a monthly chart. Yes monthly..
I never new GKP were trading since 2004. I always presumed it traded around the 10p mark .... I wonder how many people new this??????

It's quite laughable to hear so many flapping about what is not even a channel. Even the so called trend lines are totally invalid. Why oh why would anybody pay attention to something of no value?

Thanks guys - here's my pitch fork channel - before you can even think abt 10p there is lot of support @ all red lines... most have been talked abt already. it will take some considerable bad news for that to happen for sure....

dam talk abt trying to channel fear....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Channel.JPG

To be fair, much of what he's written there is correct. We've all been discussing some quite bearish downside possibilities on here for a few days (old Zak is always a few days behind the game), including the gap at 31.25p IIRC.

There's only really one catalyst which could bring 10p back again (and there IS a gap at 13 I think) and that's a cancellation of the PSC by Baghdad. Possible? Certainly judging by their past performance. Likely? Not for me. Money and Big Oil normally controls governments not the other way round.

In any event, there are no buy signals as yet (unless you count the bullish RSI divergence on the hourly) and we all know what the sensible plan is: wait for a higher low and buy the breakout. Until then it's a sell at 161p or on a break of 131p for me. Simple.

PS Let's not forget that Zak has leapt into the limelight in recent months and a mention of a possible 10p target for the "punter's" favourite is sure to grab him some more publicity and we all know what the saying is there. Good for his subscriptions I'm sure!

WS

www.screencast.com/t/rOctO1Sbl

10p lol - what channel - can some body copy that chart and paste it here please.... cheers

www.shareprophets.com/analysis/171/sell-...technical-target-10p

(Free to register - there's a chart with the article)

14bn barrels of oil as a possible reserve sounds enormous. But can Gulf Keystone export any oil that it produces from Kurtdistan? It seems to have had a few issues of late and that and the CEO flogging nearly all his shares, has spooked some fundamental investors. But the technical outlook is really grim.

What seems to be a standout to me at Gulf Keystone is the way that 99% of IG Index’s clients are long and that this number has not flinched even as the stock fell from 180p to 140p over the course of this month. Perhaps they know that there is going to be a happy ending for the company, but looking at the charting picture this does not seem to be the case. In fact, the outlook appears quite ominous, over and above the 10% decline which has already been seen from the bear call in the Shareprophets video I made last week which you can watch here.

While a book could be written on the daily chart configuration of Gulf Keystone, the main points are as follows: the overall 2011 – 2013 price pattern is that of an extended head & shoulders reversal, in fact the sharp February spike towards 450p (the head) really does appear to be the mother of bull trap situations, as well as ensuring that anyone who was bearish on this market would have been annihilated. Unfortunately a similarly grisly fate could be on offer for the longs from now.

This is because the loss of the December 161p low this month also triggered the 2 year top formation, with this idea backed up by the way that since the 161p level snapped there has not even been the slightest effort to test it as new resistance – it is a meltdown. While a weekly close back above 161p might delay the breakdown argument, a stock / market does not spend 2 years building a top and then cancelling it after a couple of weeks.

The “minimum” downside at this stage for Gulf Keystone is seen as being the red mid channel support line at 100p, while a weekly close below this opens up the bottom of the 2011 price channel and 2 year support line projection heading as low as 10p – yes, 10p. As things stand the 10p level is a one year target.

- See more at: www.shareprophets.com/analysis/171/sell-...sthash.wrMXJjGp.dpuf

Do you have a link for that bonobo please would like to see how he comes to that prediction.

SRB

Well Zak Mir has just sent a fox into the chicken coop with a 10p / 1Yr target.

Hi ft,

The only "fib" I can fit to 87p is the 100% retracement of the whole last rise. It has been discussed but not specifically as a wave target though it is a possible one - a bounce off the monthly cloud base at 103p (there's a 78.6% fib at 100p too) could point to wave C ending c. 87p. No doubt it's a key level and I've seen those p&f targets too, plus the 56p one.

WS; agreed on all points. W2 flats are rare though. I'll have a look at the Dow ones in the morning - thanks for pointing them out. Having such a bullish form in a wave 2 position certainly ought to be followed by an extremely strong 3rd wave so that fits everyone's hopes and dreams if nothing else lol!

Thank you for responding Wavesurfer

From a wave target point of view I recognise the 100 level and 65 level (sorry not exact figures) are important.
I recognise how significant 87 is from a straight forward support level.
My query is, is there a fib ratio which corresponds with the 87 level?

FT - do you mean you have seen 88p mentioned a lot rather than not ?

88p is spot to watch.

Thanks J some good a valid points.....

1) Flats, due to their bullish nature, are almost always in a wave 4 position. Here we're discussing a possible Primary wave 2;

Here is where we need to be objective... this is not a rule a myth maybe but can happen in 2's

in between 1980-90 on the dow and spx both displayed a wave 2 flat, what followed that correction was an earth shattering uptrend - with dow rising 8/10000 points. the other known w2 flat on dow was back in 2006 bottomed at approx 10683.... i'll try to get a chart to reflect at some point....

in my view a flat is flat whether regular or irreg nature. expanded or running flats by definition what are they exactly -are they just another terminology for complex nature of the structure?

For ref:




moving on to 161 - yep agree with you on that.. pivotal area.

i guess we'll just see how it goes from here on in... however things are starting to get a lot clearer for sure. either way the likeness on what follows after this correction, must not be underestimated imho , all we can do now is observe price action, look at indicators, volume, divergence, candlesticks at key area's that many have time and time mentioned so far and pick yer spots - so credit to all contributors.

as always feedback welcome, together we're all generating some sensible, respectable debate.

clearly no one is perfect, but together we can develop a greater understanding to get to a place where things start to look a lot clearer and cleaner from TA perspective.

regards WS

Jolly good evening all, just scanning through the wave chat I have not noticed 88p mentioned a lot. The reason I ask, (I have a strong sense that the P&F targets give a strong hint of which fib ratios to aim for, for those who use updata and have access to the P&F charts, if you use a 1% x3 log chart, the time frames of 5, 10, 15 and 30 mins along with the Weekly all have 86-89 active targets.





I would feel a little more assured if I could get a fib to line exact!!! and I cant!

Thank you

ft

Diver, as far as I know there's no requirement in EWT for RSI divergences. They are commonly seen between waves 3 and 5 of same degree but there's definitely no "rule" that there must be a divergence.

In any event, and to pick up on a point raised by Wreckless Eric, if we assume that wave 1 was 4.5p to 21.5p was wave 1 (which I'm 100% sure of personally since it was a rise of over 300% and 4.5p was the low SP) then there is a weekly bearish RSI divergence between the 130.5p and 202.75p peaks giving you a wave 3/5 divergence there and also a daily bearish divergence between the peaks at 161.5p on 20/09/10 and 202.75p on 3/11/10 which are the subwaves 3 and 5 of larger wave 5.

It's only if you assume that 450p (465p for some charts) was the top of a 5th wave with the 3rd wave top at 202.75p that you don't get the weekly RSI divergence. In fact, there was a divergence at 450p on the daily chart but only between the subwaves of the move from 87p to 450p.

In addition your wave A from 4.5p to 450p has 5 subwaves as part of a zigzag if I'm not mistaken. If that's the case then by your own argument you'd have to have an RSI divergence between 202.75p and 450p which you haven't got. Your RSI divergence requirement would have to apply to an impulsive wave A and C just as it would to a wave 1, 3 or 5 which would imply that 450p must be the top of a wave B, 2 or 4 so either way it cannot be an A if you insist on your RSI divergence.

I fully agree with WS that 202.75p was the top of Primary wave 1 and, for me, the debate is really all about the post-202.75p moves. And on that note....

WS, I have seen that possibility raised before ie that 450p is the top of a wave B in an expanded (irregular) flat. Certainly on a log scale chart it's looks much more possible. A coupe of points on this possibility:

1) Flats, due to their bullish nature, are almost always in a wave 4 position. Here we're discussing a possible Primary wave 2;

2) In an expanded flat, the wave C usually ends more substantially below the wave A low than in a "regular" flat which suggests a wave C low comfortably below 87p assuming this to be the correct count;

3) There's a third possibility if this is a flat (which, according to point 1 above seems unlikely to me) - that of a running flat. Of the 3 flat varieties, I think this would be the most likely by virtue of how far beyond 202.75p the SP went. The running flat is very rare and has a wave B top well beyond the start of wave A and also has a wave C which fails to go beyond the wave A low. Could this be the case here?


We'll only ever know the answer to this question after the event of course but we do seem to agree on this being in a wave C of some corrective sequence or other, and in subwave 3 of C at that. I certainly can't see any complete corrective wave count at 131.5p and the pace of the drop below 161p is in keeping with the strength of a wave 3.

Going back to diver's RSI point (and I do agree that there is usually a divergence between 3rd and 5th waves, just not that it's a requirement), the reason we often see bullish RSI divergences at the bottom of downtrend is precisely because wave C is usually an impulse wave with a 5 wave sub-structure so we get the divergence between the 3 of C and 5 of C. This is one reason why I was always sceptical about 141p being the low of the drop from 450p - there was no divergence.

IMHO we will get a bullish divergence at the bottom of this move so that may well be our first clue for a reversal. For now, though, 161p is now the key number as that seems to be the low of wave 1 of C down. If that's the case then any wave 4 of C ought to stay below that (there is a case where this doesn't have to hold true - an ending diagonal) and a 5th wave down would be likely to drop below 131.5p. A close above 161p would likely signal the drop is over and we'll have to re-visit the wave count all over again.

Have a look at the following weekly chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPweekly26_04_13.gif

Note the support at 119p from 4th Oct 2011. If that holds for the low of wave 3 of C then the 38% Fib (most common for a wave 4) happens to be at exactly 161p. A wave 5 of C equal in length to wave 1 of C would then find support very close to the 64p support from the 2010 low. Just something to look out for but worth noting I thought.

I'll continue to look for more bullish cases but I haven't been able to see any convincing ones yet. Remember, 161p is now a key level.

Amending:

25/04/13, candle doji,not 26/04/13.

Sorry.

Jackozy, WS, and all,

I feel that I have lost in wave count. But I have looked into RSI on the chart below, My chart also are same marked on WS chart about this RSI values, which is 26 Apr 9:32 and 28 Apr 12:30.








We can see that RSI (14) on 28 June 2012 is below 30, sp = 139.25p, next 1-2 days sp jumped. On 24 Dec 2012, RSI below 30, sp= 164p, next day, sp jumped. 26 Apr 13, candle is doji, next day inside as Jackozy said. The RSI was not down, but maintain 23ish. I hope that the same pattern repeat, but at least I hope there is slight sp up in short term.

I heard the rumour the good news is on the way. Lol

ogh

thanks eric - that's what i was or had been thinking, but always had that doubt and current move confirms that it may not be the case 5 waves up imo - however with that view -

1.there is clear overlap of wave 4 entering into wave 1 territory which is a no no in EW rules....

also we look at the time GKP floated - its started downtendng was it made a high of 98p in an abc to the lows of 4.5

26th june 2006 - a @ 43p , feb 05 2007 - b @ 75p, 16th march 2009 - c @ 4.5p

2. again wave 2's cannot exceed wave 1.
3. C wave up to complete B major what i have done - is 5 waves

all the three ABC corrections wave C subdivides into a five wave pattern, or an impulse wave.

An irregular is made up of a 3-3-5 sequence in which wave B exceeds the start of wave A and waves C moves close to or beyond the end of wave A.

Major A - 3 waves, Major B - 3 waves - Major C - 1,2,3 current with 4 & 5 waves to follow.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_monthlyv1.JPG

regards WS

In your weekly chart:-

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_irreg_Alt.JPG

I only ever see 5 waves 13p to 450p, followed by the current correction waves.

The 4.5p to 21p and 21p to 10p is still part of the downtrend
The breakout occured on oil find day 6/8/09, IMO.
450p is definately a wave five peak.

As I posted yesterday this results in not much of a difference in the possible bottom:-

---

Wave 1 4.5p to 450p, -61.8% 175p, -78.6% 100p.

Wave 1 13p to 450p, -61.8% 180p, -78.6% 106p, assuming breakout of downtrend on 6/8/2009 RNS oil found day, an alternative view, but very similar to J's Wave 1.

---

Not ruling out a large intra-day spike down (selling climax - on bad news).

"I just wish I could get the whole sequence up to be a 5 wave move which conforms to the rules"...

I agree Jackozy and we assess and re-assess, it's left me scratching my head for sure - so i've been looking at all time frames extensively, price, wave structures and known & uncommon fib ratio relationships and fundamental aspects to try and piece this mess together.

I maybe completely out here but this structure i'm looking at fits quite well and seems plausible for several reasons.....it's lengthy so stay with me.

Need you and several others familiar at EW that are willing to maintain dialogue and provide feedback and an objective opinion....you know me from our discussions, i look at all things and dont do true EW but remain objective to it's discipline & adhere to some key rules. from a fundamental perspective - anybody else that's willing to share (in private) on info/rumours that most general public are not aware of (to-re-assess against price...) i.e takeover, was there an offer,has it been agreed, indi article or aob that's relevant .. big ask i know but hey if you dont ask you dont get ! . yet here i am spending my time writing this, dunno why. maybe i just hate seeing PI's get shafted or maybe i'm just a good bloke willing to share my time to help or just love looking at charts lol In any case this what this great site setup by Remo & ronnie is all abt - to help, support and guide.....i digress or do i....

ok so here it is......

I believe W1 of larger degree wave completed at 202 and what we have here is an irregular correction, which in EW is extremely bullish when it completes...from my perspective, looking at this structure and that GKP lifecycle chart i posted ( greed, fear panic) it coincides perfectly and remain within the true sense of EW imo. Time, Price, Behaviour of the crowd.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Lifecyclev2.JPG





so here is my assessment:





w1 = 4.5p - 21p
w2 = 21p - 10p @ 61.8% of w1
w3 = 10p - 130p - current holding as support - coincidence ?
w4 = 130p - 64p - coincidence that retraced to a previous minute wave 4 of w3 level early - mid sept 09 ? also 57% @ 61p & 61.8% @ 56p (that price range number again - see previous post) - jackozy, your ref to july2010 candle – wave 4 complete & start of wave 5.
w5 = 64p - 202p.

the abv sequence completes imho a larger degree W1. what is and has been occurring is imo an irregular correction W2 of larger degree wave

An irregular correction occurs when the end of the B wave exceeds the starting point of the A wave ( this would be 202p). This almost always occurs in strong trends, whether up or down. In other words, the trend is so strong that any move in its direction is met with a thrust of buying or selling. (exxon rumor/bid, indi article, denial, Court case) Irregular tops can occur in zigzags or flats, but are the strongest when they occur in flats.

i hope your still with me and not falling a sleep lol zzzzzzz....

Now the start from 202p to W2 irregular complex correction.

Major A completed @ 88p ( 202p>112p (a)>183p (b)>88p (c)) aug2011 lows.
Major B completed @ 450p ( 88p>190p (a)>121p (b)>450 (c)) – There is no rule how high an irregular wave B can extend from start of (A) but usually they cap .282% fib .

Some interesting observations on this & fib relationship to price – ref weekly chart & monthly charts.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP...%20_Irreg%20_Alt.JPG
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_irreg_Alt.JPG





A fib extension from 202p (major A high) @

161% = 273p – became support for minute 4 of c of B (16 jan 12)and became resistance 26th march 12.
223% =343p – Monthly chart – body of candle comes in pretty dam close to this price( feb12) and weekly & monthly chart – breakdown occurred 05 March 12– top body of candle and price
261% = 387p – exactly the top of the weekly candle 06 feb12
282% =410p - exactly the top body of the weekly candle 30 Jan 12
And then we have final thrust and exhaustion bar to 450p that failed to be supported.

Major C in progress right now… where will it end ?

Well if this is correction is indeed a flat we can now project downside targets:

Either wave C will complete @ the low Major A @88p or make slightly lower low to the previous 4 low – there that number again J @ 64p.

Alternatively this can end up being a failed flat:
occurs when the C wave fails to reach the ending point of the A wave (@88p). the market is so strong, that it takes off before the correction has fully completed – news pending ?

there is clear support in the region of 126-131 or @minor a of A @ 106-113p…. hmmmmm

Funny isnt it - if there are people in the know (smart money) that a price has been agreed, or abt to be, or is some fundamental news due- then wouldnt it be appropriate to get the price down as low as possible to fill your boots again?

I could be completely wrong here, but clearly the structure fits well in my eyes here taking into account many factors – if you don’t try and you don’t get nothing in life, at the end of the day we just need to see how this wave develops from here on in....

This is all in my opinion of course, any feedback & opinions, debate welcomed....

For the first five way move to be an impulsive wave it must contain three divergences in the RSI: one in the wave 3; one in the wave 5, and one in the overall wave structure between waves 3 and 5. This, so far as I can see, is not the case in this instance and therefore this is not an impulsive wave structure, hence the wave A label. I can only label what I see. Just because this is the first wave of this company's trading doesn't make it a wave 1. The only thing that can make it a wave 1 is having the correct structure. I would suggest the timing of the inception of this company is more likely to dictate the initial wave structure rather than the company itself: i.e. the movement of the market in general.
This is all just my way of thinking and labeling so please feel free to disagree. All will be revealed in due course

Hi Diver, no such things as "butting in" on an open discussion mate - all views welcome here surely?

A couple of observations that I'm sure will make you smile

1) You've labelled the move from 4.55p to 465p as a wave A. By definition, this is the first subwave of a corrective sequence (ABC). The (very) long term implication of this is a low below 4.55p. It also implies a previous price higher than where you'd project your C to end since the whole ABC would be a correction to a previous downtrend. I think you really need to look at a way to label 4.55p to 465p as an impulse motive wave up. ie a wave 1 of some degree, or possibly a wave 1 and some subwaves of a wave 3 as I've done. I'm not saying my labelling is definitely right - I'd quite like to find a way to count 4.55p to 465p as a single set of 5 waves which would put us in a wave 2 down now and still leave us with a chance of hanging on to the 78.6% Fib at 100p.

2) 87p is not an abitrary level. It was the final support on the retreat from 202.75p and is, therefore, significant. If the sequence from 4.55p to 202.75p was a 5 wave sequence then that drop from 202.75p to 87p would have to have been the wave 2 of larger degree and would therefore be the projection point for upside extension targets. Indeed, that very extension played out almost perfectly as the 161.8% extension was at 409p. There are other possibilities of course.

3) Re your projection for your wave C of B (A of C given as 465p to 139.25p, B of B as 139.25p to 260p). The maximum extension of A that C can be is 79.75% and this would have C at a price of zero pence. Perhaps this move down from 465p might be better counted as a double or triple three? That way you don't need to worry about problematic projections of the 465p to 139.25p move. Just an idea.



WS: That's an interesting take. Here's something else to add to it: the 161.8% extension of 260p to 161p from 228p comes in at 68p which falls right in your ball park. There's also an oft-overlooked trendline - that from the 4.55p and 10.25p lows in 2009. Plot that trendline and where does it sit now? That's right, 68p. Given the shallow nature of it, it won't move up too quickly so it remains approximately valid for quite some time.

Also, looking at your monthly chart the waves down from 465p look very clear to me, I just wish I could get the whole sequence up to be a 5 wave move which conforms to the rules. In addition, unlike at previous turning points on the monthly chart, the indicators you've shown, rather than appearing to bottom out or turn, look to be turning further downwards and even diverging. The July 2010 candle, being fairly small, gave the chance for an August bullish engulfing candle, and the August 2011 candle was clearly a big hammer. It's going to take something spectacular on Monday and Tuesday to make April 2013's candle look anything other than very bearish. And when was the last time the SP rose during May and June of a given year? Answer: it never has.

One final general point. Following Thursday's big long-legged doji, Friday has formed an inside bar so at least in the short term we can look for a break of either 143p or 136p for direction.

there seems to be an attraction to the lowest point of 50p range of late, coincidence this price was first monthly range since start of trading back sept 2004 - 60p high to 48.5p low and monthly close of 56.4p.

in fact sept 2004 - june 2007 clear support price was 48p with highest price in that period being 98p oct 2005.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_monthlyv1.JPG

B77. I hope I'm not butting in but I see no merit in taking a starting point from an arbitrary point like 87p. Why not 64p for example?
If you want an overall picture then take the extremes of price. On my chart, which admittedly is not the best, 4.55p is the lowest point. Plot your fibs from there and you will find 131.50 falling neatly into the extended target area between 61.8% and 76.4%. The primary target area being 50% to 61.8% on all retraces of a completed move. The 76.4% falls at 113.22 which has provided support in the past. Due to the extremes of action that propelled the SP to 465.00 it is no surprise to see it extending during the retrace.
Should this prove to be the low, this is also the place from which to plot the extension. My current best bet on the overall construction of this share is that it is forming a zigzag: structured 5;3;5 in waves. There are five distinct moves in an A wave terminating at 465.00, and three moves in the current retrace. Granted the current retrace has not reached an invalidation point yet, in that it hasn't proved the move is complete, but there are some indications that may point that way. Hopefully all of the above is apparent from this chart.........

If we now move to the daily chart we can look for the fib extensions from the highs in an attempt to determine the possible low of, what I am calling, wave B. Again start with the extremes. So look to 465.00 as a starting point. From there plot to 139.25 at A and back up to 259.49 at B. Now, the fib construction of ZigZags determines a C wave to be either 61.8; 100; or 123.6% of wave A and this is where the conflict arises. The 61.8 extension from this high comes at 58.177 - shake; shiver; quiver! - Whereas, making the same calculation of the internal structure of the C wave thru B;W;X in yellow, provides a 100% extension at 129.51, and a max 123.6% at 106.27. The grey extension is a c of C and is already extended to 161.8% so I may well have got that labeling wrong and will need to re-label, but this also terminates at 128.57.


So, both of these internal structures, together with the RSI and StochRSI are looking exhausted, hence my supposition the wave may well be complete.
Now, I am not placing any bets on this as it is only theory. I am firmly in the 'Remo Camp' of wanting to see. what I call, invalidation, and what he terms a '123' pattern, before risking hard-earned cash. So please, DYOR.
It is not often I get time to put detail on paper so apologise if some of my posts appear a bit cryptic at times but trust this provides some missing detail.
Have a great weekend folks - Spring is here; April is almost done and it's 6 degrees outside! This global warming has a lot to answer for!!!

With vol. and MACD more pronouned than June 2012, no suprise if the trend continues below 139p now 141.75p has broken, whether 131p/129p; 111p or lower holds time will tell. Looking at the oblique support on this ProRealtime chart, 103.5p & 100.5p could occur on 10/6/13 & 18/6/13 respectively.Good or bad news from the court case?

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/87556809/0da...6072e3d45599_png.mht

Wave 1 4.5p to 450p, -61.8% 175p, -78.6% 100p.

Wave 1 13p to 450p, -61.8% 180p, -78.6% 106p, assuming breakout of downtrend on 6/8/2009 RNS oil found day, an alternative view, but very similar to J's Wave 1.

Still waiting for selling climax.

"There will be a wide spread down-day, often driving down into recent (closed at 128.25 1/11/11; 124.50 4/10/11; 103.00 5/8/11; 100.75 8/8/11) or new low ground (87p 4/8/11)all pre that spike, and then closing at or near the highs, on high vol. Note this indicator is more reliable when the day is gapped down and the following day is gapped up - add more bullishness if news is bad. Any down-day on low vol.(no selling) after this event, especially if it closes on the high of the day, is a strong indicator of market strength". Page 81 Master the Markets - volume analysis.

B77,

Yes, I do see merit in that. I think 131.5p is close enough to 129p to count as the same. If that level goes then, from memory, there's really only the 111p area to hold it and that's not strong imho.

By the way, I just want to say well done to you for getting to grips with TA. I know it's not for everyone who invests and you're probably mainly a fundamentals guy (based on your impressive research and knowledge in that area) but I have to respect you for adding TA to your arsenal. KNowing about it doesn't mean you have to use it but at least it helps manage the emotional side of investing!

Jacko, do you see any merit in the following: it appears that if you take the rise from 87p to 450p (Aug11-Feb12), we have now dropped easily through the 78.6%% Fib retracement of that move at 164p. The next level to look at is the 88.6% level at 129p (and maybe yesterday's 131.5p is that test). If 129p fails, then the full 100% retracement could well be tested at 87p.

I note that the 129p level corresponds with many of the technical indicators posted earlier in this thread by farmertim.

haha, stupidly i closed after holding for so long, was well CENSOREDed.. then re-entered on the break down, i have no position in gold - looking to reshort @ 1550 ish but then i'll have have target $1000 for a bear market low

Completely agree with everything you say there, WS.

I also have the markets having completed B up yesterday so 5 waves down for C and then up we go. We're still due a backtest of 14198 for the Dow but, again, that's a bit obvious so my preference would be a drop to the Dow's trendline up from the Nov low which stands at 14050 today though it does coincide with 14198 on 10th May. We'll see how it goes.

PS Hope you enjoyed your ride on gold and kept those shorts open all the way. I still think that's going to make a further low and had 1265 as a possibility if I remember our discussion correctly.

Indeed J - looks like it's happening again - the power & interpretation of Psychology vs Price is fundamental...

where the mass (PI base) are herded to some key levels, it's often best to look at another indicative levels and as we approach the end of the month - must keep an eye on the monthly chart and where it closes.

as you know i expect the market to correct or they have been for a while - complex and my view is B completed yesterday and were now in the early stages of C down, that my preferred count and i'm already positioned, i have an alt which is still bullish but wont give that any thought unless us markets make new highs and close abv em. if this is indeed a C wave down then what further impact will it have on this share.....

hopefully investors in this will get there rewards eventually, perhaps this is the last saloon - price action reflected in candlesticks will start giving some clue to a bounce, volumes, +div on lager timeframes will be the watch for here on in.....bottom picking now after key breaks comes with a wealth warning.

Nice, WS

That whole middle section: greed, thrill, anxiety, panic, more panic, denial and capitulation were all clear to see as they happened. Amazing the power of money, eh?

PS If you think those bull option waves look out of synch size-wise then look at the log scale chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...logchart26_04_13.gif

Trendfriend wrote:
Hi Trendfriend,

Yes, there are gaps at 52.75p, 31.25p and 13p. It's really quite amazing that even the 53p one is being discussed lol!

Here are the weekly charts showing the options I discussed last night. First the bull option:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...lloption26_04_13.gif

We'd normally look for the 61.8% Fib to hold for a wave 2. Sometimes it'll drop to the 78.6% Fib, but there's usually a full retrace if that goes which is why I think this option is unlikely. So what does the bear count look like?



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...aroption26_04_13.gif

Yes, I know that there are some unbelievable possibilities in here, but the whole saga has been unreal so you never know. Corrective waves (ABCs) have 2 basic forms: 3-3-5 and 5-3-5. There are many complicated versions of these, but they're the basic forms.

The above bear count assumes that 450p was the top of a major wave 1 and we're looking at the wave 2 retrace of the 4.5p to 450p move. That has the 61.8% Fib at 175p which has already gone and the 78.6% Fib at 100p. If it closes below that 100p Fib then it opens up a possibility of a full retrace as described above. Remember, this is pure technical theory taking no account of fundamentals whatsoever.

Going back to the basic corrective forms, we can easily see how the drop to 139p could be a 3 wave move for wave A, then we have a clear 3 wave move up to 260p for a possible B. We'd then (normally) be looking for a 5 wave move down for wave C. During this move, we'd expect wave 1 of C down to be followed by a 61.8% retrace upwards for wave 2. That's exactly what happened when it hit 228p. Wave 3 sometimes comes in at the 161.8% extension of wave 1 projected from the wave 2 high and that's shown on the chart. A 38.2% retrace of that move would constitute a wave 4 up and then a final wave 5 down which, in this purely hypothetical case, could give a target at c. 29p, right near that 31p gap.

I realise that this is a very emotive share so please, please take all the above only as the theoretical discussion it's intended to be. Pretend it's not GKP and just consider the above as a discussion of wave analysis.

Remember also that corrective waves are usually very complex and unpredictable (wave 3 of C may get nowhere near the 161.8% extension for example) so none of the above may happen in reality.

Today's action so far is not suggestive of a reversal yesterday but the day is still young. We've already discussed the safest way to go long on this so until then it's best not to try and catch the bottom. That's not to say don't buy support, but DO make sure you use stops if you try that.

If anyone wants to look at Ichimoku chart or P&F chart analysis on this then I'd be happy to join in. Best of luck folks.

seeing there's lots of interest - here's a different view...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Lifecyclev2.JPG

here's a simple chart but effective chart and it dont look pretty, needs to start moving to the upside pretty quickly:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Monthly.JPG
WaveSurfer wrote:

J pretty much agree with your assessment, imo i dont think the low is in...too many PI eyes on the 140/131 price range along with a somewhat muted reaction in price and candle... one potential positive to take is there appears to be a +div developing daily & weekly from previous lows of 139p jun2012, maybe just maybe...confirmation is key now before entering into this.

if ~126/119 goes.. then u bet this will trigger a waterfull effect & a very good possibility it'll start ripping through into 106 > 88 > 68 > 54p.

WS.

Jackozy,

Just noticed something on the long term GKP chart.

I see a gap(i've tried to show it with the horizontal lines). Sorry about the dodgy chart, but the gap is around 55p roughly.

My question is this, if we take your Big bad Bear option(LOL), its not a million miles from this gap, right?

Not saying we are going there, but say a bad result in the court case, then possibly.
Just wondered if you had noticed this gap before?
Here is the link
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...bd80=&symbol=L%5EGKP

B.Regs,
Trendfriend.