Trendfriend wrote:
I thought you went long at 54.9 and were going to add more if it dropped to 50?? How low was your stop?! Apologies in advance if I'm being gormless and missing something!

Got stopped out this trade.

Thank you for the analysis once again.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...v0%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

There are some positives right now for longs and some negatives. I'd call them even right now.

Positives: If 54.25 remains today's low we have a tweezer bottom near a support level maybe combined with a bullish harami. RSI support is also holding strong so far.

Negatives: Gap not closed - not close enough for me. Bounce today hit it's head on / back tested previous support and failed (so far). Also didn't make resistance at 61. Volume is still not enough for me to indicate a bottom.

73.75 fell on the third attempt. So did 61. The tweezer is two tests on 54.25.

Whereas for me volume is not enough yet, this could be satisfied during a sharp move upwards today/this week. 10-15MM would do it IMO. If this is the bottom then the share is not performing as it usually does, but that is no reason why it can't.

I am happy to wait and as Remo pointed out, if you miss the low entry then a horizontal breakout can still be taken. When it does turn we should see a 20% rise at minimum so there is plenty of profit available but that might be before a breakout, not after. The first key is not to make losses, not to chase profits.

In any case, all this might still not end the long downtrend, sucha re the issues with GKP.

That's all.

F4T

PS: Can you elaborate on the 37 support please Remo. Ta

Hi F4T

Do you think the bounce is sufficient (volume is very low), or do you expect the low to be retested?

Tia

Its more or less filled the gap from the past...
Now if it finishes below this then look towards 37 as the next level of support.
Currently doji which is good as its indecision right at support.
Best entry from now would be to wait for a 123 low formation which is the safest way to enter..
good luck you gkp traders


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp8thoct2014.png

Nice bounce today TF

This bounced of the falling support, @54.25p area.
Been waiting patiently for a while for this to happen, so didnt want to miss out for a penny or so.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

This could go down a bit further and make a intrday break below the support line, i may add more if this happens, i will close this trade if we have a end of day close below the support line.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Target is the resistance trendline, and 50 day @ around 75p.
Lets see how it goes from here.
Regards,
Trendfriend.

I'm with you EG. Gap not closed but volume ok. It will close first thing tomorrow IMO maybe with a bit of relish

What worries me here at the moment is that the bottom of the gap wasn't reached on a dramatic spike down and rapid bounce back accompanied by a sharp spike in volume. The SP has instead just kinda drifted down to 54.75 as I type (albeit decent volume overall today at 7m).

Is the dramatic rapid spike down still to come and to what? 48/49?

I too have dipped a cautious toe in at 55 but only 2K shares so far…..

Just gone long here @ 54.90, near enough to my target @ 54p,(what's a penny here and there, lol) for which i have been waiting a long time for!
Its also hit the bottom of the descending support. Will post a chart later.
I will add more if we get to the low 50's
Wonder what Wavesurfer makes of todays action??
Lets see how it goes from here.
regards,
trendfriend.

Do you consider the gap to have closed?

Supports below 53.75

40 horizontal
34.50 horizontal
13.25 - 18.50 Gap (final)

I would say that the horizontal supports are relatively weak

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...MU%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Hi SirRichardBunson,

This particular heat chart from MetaStock is based on the 52 week low, which was the latest event signal generated, there are other signals the chart can be based on such as RSI, CCI, etc.

On the right hand side is the scale that tells you the probability in percentage terms, so yes you are right the blue is lower probability and red is higher probability.

I am having a nibble, testing the gap, bought at just over 56, I am guessing if it touches 54 it will not be for long and could bounce quite fast.

or ..... it does none of those things .......

I would need to have a look Richard. Not on laptop. There is a gap in the 20p area from memory. It is not unusual to test a psychological area, e.g. 50, so we might see a dip below that: 49? 48?

This share is in trouble as we know. The only possible good news out there is production and that's not enough. Getting into profit might do some good. All news is bad lately. Holders must be suicidal.

We tested rsi support today. As always volume is what I wait for. I would have expected the bottom of the gap today with high volume. Maybe tomorrow. Look at the candles and volume on the first test of 61. That would do it but tricky to get near the lows as it happens quickly. I got 67 last time but should have done better.

GL
F4T

Hi all,

Not posted here for a while...Been a bit too busy now I'm not on holiday! Anyway, great analysis - bang on the money. Sadly my hypothetical inverse head and shoulders never had a chance in such a strong downtrend! Seems like a lifetime ago! Ha, ha! I too think this could well go past the gap now and potentially hit support on weekly, around 50p for now. Not much more to add. All lines in the sand already blown away!

weekly...

Hi F4T

If 54p fails what is the next support?

Many thanks

Richard

53.75
The gap has been pierced today. I am losing confidence that closing this gap will be enough. I would have expected more volume today. Tomorrows price action and volume might enlighten us.

F4T

Am i right in thinking that we need an sp of 54ish p for the gap to fill here?

Hi Ronnie not having Metastock can you please elaborate on what that heat chart exactly means.

If I had to guess the light blue is low possibility with the bright red high possibility, therefore looking at the chart 90 days from now Metastock are forcasting little movement on the high possibility with +40% to -30% on the low, how far am I out.

Many thanks

Something that might be interesting from MetaStock Forecaster showing GKP going sideways to down in the long-term:


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/Scre...10-06%2013.25.43.png

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKPhourly.png

A look at the hourly chart would appear to indicate increasing momentum of the lows since August 8th last. The Fibonacci movement is also showing an equal leg movement from the top at 89.75 since Aug 22nd.

Obviously there are no guarantees, especially in Iraq, but, at the least, it is encouraging.

Any views on today's action and recent multiple tests of 61? Presumably not enough volume to call a double bottom yet?

WS - am a novice here. Do you mean by those numbers your projected next moves after the 5th wave of C completes? Once C does complete, could we see a push towards a potential inverse Head and Shoulders?

Thanks in advance, still much to learn!

BJT

This a weekly, the rsi looks to have broken support, and the price action should follow imho.
In any case, im sick and tired of this share, wish it would just get on with it!
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8IDg=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Regards,
Trendfriend

Hi WS,

that divergence has been there for some time on the longer time frames.

Pity about that RNS the other day. We would have hit the bottom of gap today otherwise. Never mind, I still think we will get there but we might need to hurry. This general turmoil won't last much longer.

Hope no one got too burnt in the general price action today. Markets are just giving some room before earnings season and the run in to Xmas IMO. I can see the S&P500 at 2100 this year.

GL
F4T

I think it be more prudent to watch the monthly candle for october....





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...28DFB%29_monthly.png

61, 54 << 73 >> 98x2

rgds WS

A few mentions of the gap at 54-58p.

How much importance would you guys place on a gap? And in particular a gap that occurred some time ago.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...f0%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

Nice bounce taoday, but the RSI did not break out (yet anyway), so this tells us this is about as high as this will go.
The close is important, all bounces for a while have been sold into here. I expect the same today to create a bearish candle by close or tomorrow imho.

This is coming to the end of the traingle now, so it's going to decide which way it will go very soon imho.

My preference is a move down to 51/54p area, and then a bounce, which will again be a dead cat one imo, but will be a tasty 15/20% bounce, before a move back down again imo.

Lets see how this goes,
Regards,
Trendfriend.

Can we see the Technical analysis of your reasoning psyurnh, or is this just a throw away comment!

After the RNS today I think there is a good probability of around a10% drop towards the gap.

Thanks to all for the analysis F4T you have been pretty much on the money ....My two pence worth from purely empirical observation...is if Monday is bearish that by Thursday it will most likely hit the bottom for the week...

Yes I do. Keep an eye on volume Richard. I would expect more than 20MM across a couple of days to indicate that a bottom might be forming.

Hi F4T

Do you still expect 60/61p to fall?

Thanks

Should start seeing some volume building as we near the 60/61 support. Short is certainly the play TF. 28% now for those that did so at 89/90!

Well i wanted to go short, but IG will not let me!
Not fair really, can be sure they would let me go long!

I was taking a look at GKP again, this has been in a falling channel since late Aug.
I think a break of this channel will see this tumble very quickly to the bottom of the bigger falling wedge @ 52p(ish)

The bottom of this small channel is @ 66p today (falling daily)
I intend to go short on the break of 66p today only.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...o0A4=&symbol=L%5EGKP

This is the bigger wedge we have been in for some time.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...0U%3D&symbol=L%5EASC

Regards,
trendfriend.

Thanks F4T, Remo, WS, always good to have healthy debate about gkp! ')

I don't trade with emotions Remo and I certainly hope you don't either. It's all about patience more than anything else, plus a bit of know how. Trade the signals/setups and if there aren't any, don't trade. Don't over trade and eliminate positive bias is my advice to you.

Not sure what second guessing has to do with anything.

Anyway, each to their own views and techniques.

GL
F4T
remo wrote:

72 to 117 = +62%
117 to 61 = +48%
61 to 90 = +47%
90 to 67 (so far) = +25%

and that's only the past 3 months. Not bad for a lousy trading share.... plenty of signals in there too IMO, some of which are documented on this very thread..

Watch this fall quickly now, this is about to tumble badly imo.

in trading terms,,,this is not that great a share to trade..There are loads of better companies that trade way better than gkp.Just look at the past month of the chart...sideways...no clear signals to trade from..There are thousands of shares in the ftse and there all tradable. Its a matter of looking for the next best share to trade.

with shares any thing is possible...you cant second guess a share..leave emotions out of it

Food4Thought wrote:

There has never been anything boring about GKP Remo. It reacts extremely well to technicals and the whiplash volatility always promises above average gains. One can make a living on this share alone, long and/or short. Some do.

It's always nice to hear those brave pioneers reminisce about the 10p days, but it really doesn't matter what price the stock is at because the interest in it has remained from traders and PI's throughout.

We all agree that 54p is a good marker for a bounce but I personally think that a return to 14/10p is a little premature. Maybe if IS nationalise the assets .

forgot to add...
if 54 does not hold ,this share may go to 14p where there is a strong gap support...
so its important to have stops in play...
14p thats where most of us had originally bought this share from...lol...i got into this just below 10p originally...that would be a full circle....

This share has become boring of late..Nothing interesting in this from a traders perspective.This is just going sideways for now. The best level for a long on a day trade wise will be at 61 on a first attempt..possible double bottom?? but this would have to have a tight stop of 2-3 points...The ultimate level for a long will be 54 as that is where the gap support is, this should bounce from there as gaps from the past have a stronger chance of holding declines especially important gaps..If a share has multiple gaps then this does not work but gkp dont have that many gaps so i expect this level to hold on a first attempt basis.
This level has significance for gkp as thats where it gapped up from before moving to the crazy heights of 450 area.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp25thsept2104.png

so all in all a boring share to trade recently...

Cheers WS.
It was an odd close yesterday. Traded below 70p all day and looked certain to complete the three outside down formation, then a pop at the close to form a hammer. Today's open at 68.25 reset the bar.

My falling wedge support is now below 61 and going lower every day. No pressure on RSI yet and volumes still poor. Not long now.......

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...qJ4k=&symbol=L%5EGKP

great stuff - thanks for this WS!

to follow up with a chart - coincidence or what ? price (32days in 8 to go) and time ?

need to start turning up & taking out previous high low to start with to invalidate



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Daily%2024Spet14.PNG



WS

Judgement day - as early as tom or by end of week possible.

if gkp does not turn back up from here by tomorrow, then i'm expecting a drop to at least the lows of august and more than likely take it out and start hunting for a new low.

i'm more inclined to think if it does drop, then it wont be a drip drip drop, it would be again in the magnitude of the drop that made a lower low in august ( big red candle 10-20 pips approx, then once that happens think the market will start to find the low - and it's so close to doing it.

no change in my view and price area to watch remain the same as per previous few posts, just thought i'd mention what i see as of today close.

All the Best WS