Don't look now but is the bottom of this share finally in?

Weekly view:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...KPweekly28_02_14.png

Higher high and higher low in this week's candle (after a doji last week) and closed above the main uptrend support.

Daily view:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily28_02_14.png

Backtest of the wedge breakout on Thursday with a bullish candle on Friday taking out the highs of the previous two days and likely forming a higher low. Note also the RSI divergence which held perfectly on Friday.

All we need now is a close above 161.25 (161.75) and then an RSI breakout and we could be good to rock and roll...

Until we get those confirmations caution remains but I'm long with a first tranche with stops below 146.5p (or, safer, 143p).

low of 143
high of 161.75
SirRichardBunson wrote:

Hi SRB,

PRT has 143.0 and 160.55p on their EOD charts but I'm sure it had 161.25p yesterday on that.

What's 0.7p between friends? )

Remo Can you give some exact numbers please, unfortunately my ADVFN and iii differ on the highs and lows of Wave 1 of this possible 123 low, I have possible low 143 and high 161.25, thanks

Possible 123 low set up...???
This looks like a perfect set up..
so one to keep an eye out for.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp26thfeb2014.png

Dont jump the gun, wait for the signal

Announce today their proposed move to main market on March 24th:)

4hr view as of close today.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...28DFB%294hr_edv2.png

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...8DFB%29daily%203.png

skipper10 wrote:
Skip, the 134 came from a Fib extension of the 196p to 161p move projected from 191.25p at the 161.8% level. It's just a theoretical support rather than an actual price or trendline support.

The whole drop looks exhausted to me but we all know I've been wrong on plenty of occasions. GKP doesn't have many daily bullish divergences in its price history though.

161p the boss in the short term.

Trend line support evident on monthly chart


backed up by hammer on Friday on daily
backed up by bullish divergences across multiple time frames


I have some orders to open long for monday @ 153, 153.5, 154, 155 & 156

SL below 144
Targets - 165, 191.25

Thanks j was trying to figure where the taunted 134 came from, was sure i saw this chart on forum, still dont know

Hi Skip,

I'm not sure - don't think so - why? Perhaps I posted something on my blog and thought I'd put it on here too...

I was referring to this chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...earcount27_01_14.png

That channel intersects the 112p price support in early May and would make a final low in a possible triple three correction so that's why I've been speculating it as a possible target. However, the final C wave (labelled "Z") in a triple can have all sorts of permutations and they can often end higher than previous lows (if you think about it, a triple 3 correction is as big and nasty as they get so it's not surprising if downward momentum is flagging by the time it comes round to the last wave down. You can often see triangles in this position too).

You can see from the daily chart I posted on Friday that there is a possible ending diagonal from the 196p high and, indeed, that intersected the uptrend support formed by the 126p and 129p lows at Friday's low price so it's possible that Z has ended. Possible, not certain.

As WS says, 161p will be key moving forward now. It's been an important support so it needs to be taken back for more upside.

For jackozy



Have you some gkp posts gone missing? between 5 feb and 14 feb

Have you some gkp posts gone missing? between 5 feb and 14 feb

An updated hourly chart for the 'sadist' amongst us


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKPhourly.png

not much to say except for - WATCH 161

Oh dear! The little smiley fella with the shades should be (( B )). Sorry, forgot to put in the spaces between the brackets and the text

Well done Jackozy: you beat me to it

Here's my version of what's to come.....

GKP

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONEwide.png

Looking at the wave structure that already exists, we appear to have a large Flat forming. The ((A)) wave terminating at 450; the (() wave at 126; and the ((C)) wave, currently under construction and estimated to terminate between 580 and 680. The first two waves have already formed as three wave ABC’s; the ((C)) wave should therefore form as an impulsive 1,2,3,4,5 starting from 126.
Wave 1 of ((C)) is already under construction and itself appears to be a flat. Waves A and B both being three way moves I expect wave C to be a 5 way construction and terminate between 257 and 284. Wave 2 should then retrace to around the 200 mark before wave 3 kicks in toward the 500. A short retrace back to around 430 > 385 should see wave 4 completed, followed by a final wave 5 to 580 > 680 to complete wave ((C)).
The internal construction of the individual waves will become apparent with the passing of time but, as mentioned, I expect the next wave to be of impulsive nature to complete a flat. It is not possible to show the entire structure on one chart due to its size and scope, so the chart shown under excludes the wave 5 of ((C)).
The timescale for the construction may well be protracted so patience will remain ‘king’. The chart is not meant to reflect timescale with any degree of accuracy. I would suggest there are probably several fundamental aspects that will affect timing, the obvious two being the situation between the Kurds and the central Iraqi government and any possible take-over.

Lol! Sorry folks! Wrong chart. Here's the right one:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily14_02_14.png

Uhmmm, no post about this today?

Bounced off multiple supports and closed above the main uptrend with a bull hammer after a nice fade down below. I've been looking wave count possibilities here and I think the failure of the bounce off 149p to reach 179/181p was actually bullish and left that as a possible 4th of wave Z (see earlier weekly wave count). If so then this low (with a bullish divergence) could have been the end of the massive triple three correction from 450p. Still options here but looking good as long as it confirms in coming sessions. Here's the chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily14_02_14.png

Could it be at last?....

Possible 123 low forming ???
One to watch...
dont jump the gun


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp11thfeb2014.png

A look at what maybe coming


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...Ltd%20%28view%29.png

...the little blue boxes are the interesting targety 'bits'; the first one is a fairly broad target to accommodate two series of fib %'s but I'm sure all 'long-termers' will immediately identify familiar supports/resistances therein. There is a third target just off the top of the screen and, as these are all percentage based, they get broader as the price increase. This last target looks at an area between 571.83 and 676.96. An area to suit all if I might suggest

May God bless her and all who sail in her!

J, apologies mate. Talking at cross purposes here: I thought you were referring to a much smaller triangle. The large triangle opportunity you highlight is a possibility though, due to it's location, it would require some drastic relabeling, at least on my part, to accommodate as triangles usually only occur in wave 4's or B's or as connectors in ABC's.
The RSI is a great little tool for confirming triangles as it will religiously follow the pattern of the triangle: if the SP goes up then so will the RSI - never the other way around. Handy!

diver993 wrote:
Can you explain what you mean please Diver? Today's candle was the 4th Feb. Also, I don't see how RSI can invalidate the possibility that there could be a descending triangle in play - the only thing that can do that is a price breakout surely? RSI could give a clue to that happening but price is king...

240p, 148.75p, 196p, 149p....descending highs with flat bottom. It's a possibility is all I'm saying. I've seen these break to the upside before too.

Just my observations.

a close abv todays high will be key esp abv 165, clearly buyers stepped in at a key level to create a bullish engulfing candle today (day 2) which also sets up a potential bullish outside 3 reversal setup, needs to confirm by another green candle (day 3) higher daily close for that to happen and today lows has to hold - today's low at 148.9 (HL) and the last low of 148.6 (Nov 13 2013 daily candle)

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Daily_Feb04.PNG




Important few days for GKP imo.


rgds WS

J, check out your RSI and I think you'll find the triangle has been invalidated: today's reading is higher than Feb 4th; if the triangle were to form the RSI would take the same reducing form as the SP.
After so many false dawns it will be good to see this come to potential;)

Sets up a target of 179 which also happens to be the main downtrend resistance in a couple of days so 179/181p is now a key level. Watch RSI for a possible break indicator. If it falls back off that then there's the possibility of a nasty descending triangle with base at 149p. I'll leave others to work out possible targets for that...

Critical times but looks like a decent size move is coming soon....but which way?

...and here's a close-up of the hourly....
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...d%20%28hourly%29.png

Daily chart update highlighting the main trendlines from the 10p lows and the ATH:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily04_02_14.png

There's gonna have to be a breakout of one or the other in the not too distant future. Also look for a possible W formation from the 240p high.

Got the bullish engulfing remo and a nice possible cup on the hourly. I'd like to see it hold 159.5p now.

An example of the current hourly chart of GKP
You can see how its been getting lower lows all this time .So could have helped people from jumping the gun
You now can see the level jackozy was talking about on the hourly with regards to the 123 breakout point.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkphourly4thfeb2014.png

Sorry, remo - I misread your comment that I quoted. Thought you said that we were looking *at* a bullish engulfing...

GKP needs a finish above 162.5..Thats when you can say that the bulls have gained control
Thats also when you can relax if you have already gone long from the perfect level
Obviously im not saying to go long current level as that has gone and passed as far as im concerned.If you have not gone long from the 150 area then you have missed the perfect level to go long on a first attempt basis.
also if it does go back to the 150 level now then stand aside as that level was only good for the first time.

"What your looking for now is a nice bullish engulfing pattern"

Might be best to see where it closes first, eh, remo?

I'm now looking for hourly and then, later on (hopefully), RSI breakouts. Still not made a new daily higher low/higher high or an hourly higher low/higher high or a 123-low breakout so plenty yet to do for this stock.

Without those RSI breakouts, Diver's observation of the impulsive down waves and corrective upwaves still needs to be considered too IMHO.

Not out of the woods yet but I'm pretty sure we're all hopeful! )

Perfect bounce...Real text book stuff

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/4thfebgkp.png

I hope a lot of you GKP fans got into this trade at the perfect level earlier today
That shows how effective technicals can be and a bit of patients can help you..
What your looking for now is a nice bullish engulfing pattern

Bounced straight off the main uptrend support and horizontal support at 149p so far today. Can't form a hammer off that now as it's bounced too far from the open so need to see how it closes...

A note to myself, 'check the 4hr before posting in the future'!

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...0Ltd%20%284hr%29.png

The current move down from the 191 high is a 5-way move as highlighted by the divergence on the RSI. Look deeper, and the swing down from 169.75 ( iv), is also a perfect 5-way, meaning we now have to complete the wave v to complete the entire move. This has two usual options - that said it doesn't have to be normal, so watch out - first option, the same as wave i, which is invalidated by yesterdays close; second option 161.8% extension of wave iv, meaning it will finish around 148.55. Just hope there is no extension to the wave 5

Forgive me for calling this done......

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKPdaily.png

....hope I'm not pushing my luck

Jackozy, I'm not saying it's going to go up, merely that the count holds good until invalidated and this wouldn't be the case until 148.62 is taken out.
There is a distinct possibility that what I currently label B/2 could turn out to be the A wave in an ABC, in which case it will go lower.
As in almost every circumstance there are two possibilities; I'm just trying to see what is already there. A break of 160.75 today and we are going to seriously threaten 148.62?!?

Hi Diver,

I think I understand what you're saying. I hope it goes up too but there's not much room for hope in the market!

That should read....

'Another reason to consider the (( B )) to be valid'....... and not the smiley

Jackozy, if you go back to the beginning I think you'll find the 450 high is the 'daddy' A wave, which means the subsequent low at 126 could qualify for the 'big B', making us now in either the beginnings of a C or wave 3. This view is valid all the time the 126 low holds...
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKPdaily.png

....also, check out the RSI - easier to see it on your own PC as you'll get a reading - all the time a swing is in being it will not exceed the high or the low of that swing - as in 'daddy A' and 'big B'. So, all the time it doesn't drop below 23.65(on my daily chart - it may be lower on a shorter time-frame)I consider 126 to be the 'big B'.

Another reason to consider the (() to be valid is that it retraces ((A)) between 76.4 and 85.4%.
You may also be interested to know each subsequent A wave - according to my chart - has been retraced almost exactly 76.4%, which includes the current retrace happening right now. So, it has set a pattern, and I am very hopeful for a C wave coming up

Of course, I may be wrong, but, I hold this view until it is invalidated.

PPS As you'll note, that screenshot was taken nearly 2 weeks ago and price has dropped in line since.

Hate to say it but I think this is what's going on here now:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...earcount14_01_14.png

It looks to me like a massive triple three correction (ABW-X-ABY-X-ABZ) which could end at around the 112p mark. IMHO there is now far more evidence for the bear case than the bull one since the recent failure to take out the main downtrend resistance at 191.25p:

To start with the move from 126p to 240p looks to be a clear 3 waves; the drop from 240p to 148.75p seems a clear 5 wave move but these can both be counted differently. The subsequent rise to 196p was to the 50% Fib which is pretty classic wave B stuff and then we've had a failure to break that 196p level after a retrace and while that's allowable, it should have at least tested 196p again to form an ascending triangle. The fact that today it hit 161p (the 100% retrace from 196p) and closed only just above it suggests at best a very weak upward move and, more likely IMHO, a signal that in fact we could be in wave 3 of Z down from 191.25p.

If this count is correct, then I'm afraid that there are all sorts of complicated permutations allowable under EWT including an end above the 126p low so calling the bottom on this could be extremely difficult. What I'm looking for is a set of 5 waves down from the 196p high and that, for me, ought to be the end of this entire correction.

For the bulls, an imminent bounce and close above the mid 180s is required and even then it will need to go on and take out that 196p and then 240p level before they can be confident IMHO.

PS We all know EWT is complicated and only an atlas with many possible routes so be careful trading using that. Remo regularly shows that simplicity is often best and basic S&Rs, 123-lows (good option in this case) and other risk controlled options are usually better.

This had finished bang on the short term trend line on friday . That was a warning sign of a break through...(hindsight)
The best place for any new longs now is at the 150 area only so dont go jumping the gun now.
This area has 2 levels of support converging as you have the main trend line and the horizontal support.
Id use a tight stop of 5 points from here.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp27thjan2014.png

good luck

This has come back on my radar.
Im gonna go long on a first attempt trade at 170. Stops are gonna be tight.Stops should always be placed below a near by support and in this case if i do enter at 170 then the stop will be below the support at 160.75 so around 159. Hate round numbers.
This is also approaching the area where it broke out from the 123 low a while back. This was at 168.5.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp22nd%20jan2014.png

GKP is in a sideways market so always harder to trade. Just bear that in mind.
Sideways markets are the hardest to trade . So i feel sorry for all the newbees out there that try and trade this.
Its still one of my favorite share thou

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...220114%20%28-%29.png

This is an hourly chart. Looks like we have to go to 176, or maybe even 173.40 before we see this rise....

Apparently there is a meeting today between the Deputy PM, Al-Shahristani; the Oil Minister, Elaibi; and a KRG delegation. If anything productive comes from it - if - it may provoke a market reaction this coming week.....

just for fun