Anyone who has stayed short on the spread for so long, must be getting hurt by some heavy fees by now, let alone the rise!

Well the dow has done well, looks like its trying to break out now.

Is that the shorts done then?

Dow over 17758, or does it have to be during market hours and a close above?

Or do we need the close above 18084 as remo post below?

Interesting to watch the different views.

I think thats the edge WaveSurfer has mentioned in his post, as you can see market is in very key aera where downside is somehow more likely imo

Thanks TF.

expecting a bounce today:

Numbers to watch for today only with the exception on 512.

613 is Key for today only abv will head towards 648 > 705 > 750

if market continue to resist 705 then sell

topside 750
512 > 472 > 460 bottom

longer term 512 to remain important on closing basis, this is the area to watch for sell in may n go away...no break then no sell in may

markets are on the edge now, getting close....

I'll be back

fantastic call WS....brilliant.

you need to stick around for us please....

nice to have you back, and Madmax as well...

some real genius folks on CV ....Monkeyz and CT as well, i could go on....

ATB, and thanks,
Trendfriend.

No change in view..... if dow can stay below ~17758 >17635 > 579 > 520/512 target by end of day today.

below that - big dump > 17372 > 17150....

more on this later.....

all the best....

WS the bear, belive or not....

Possible h&s pattern on the chart




Pls dyor

im short on the dow and my stop is above the 2 point above 18084. This is a wide stop only due to the 123 high formation.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow29thapril2016.png

The old saying..go away in May and come back in September could be happening this year. So shorts could be the way forward for indexs

Possible 123 high formation on the dow.
Im gonna short the dow if the 123 high formation activates at 17855 during market hours only and my stop would be above the 2 point if activated.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow28thapril2016.png

im waiting to short the dow at 18350 on a first attempt, only during market hours.
40 point stop.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow19thapril2016.png

Up to circa 18000 > pullback > pump > June 23 > dump > dump > dump

...I still think we're going to pump until June 23rd then we dump, hard.

Dow daily
Anyone else think that's a bull flag??? hmmmm...
Off course it's only a bull flag if it breaks out.....
I'm a big bear atm, and i still think this will get dumped.....but if that breaks out then a long scalp could be on imho....

Trendfriend

The dow looks like its in a sideways market. These are always the hardest to trade.
Its been in this market since early 2014. This can help build strength to push higher?? The key now would be to wait for a clear break out of the range.It could go ether way. The range is 3000 points long so if it goes past 18350 then you can expect the dow to hit 21350 but if it goes below 15340 then you can expect this to drop to 12340. Simple.
I always keep it simple .

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thapril2016.png

I'd put a post that's disappeared saying I was looking for DOW to pull back early this week around the 18000 mark (I actually expect it when the SPX hits resistance around 2095, what ever that equates to on DOW).

I originally thought it would be the start of a big bear market when it got there but we've got there so quick now i'm starting to wonder if it could just be a pull back.

For non chart reasons I think the market is going to push on until the referendum in June which will trigger the bear market (no matter what the result).

...if you look at the Scottish referendum, pretty much to the minute it became clear what the result would be the markets started to drop and went on to lose 10%, can only assume that was due to buy on rumour, sell on news.

sorry for all the posts thats gone missing....had to reboot from old copy so all the latest post and settings were lost.
hopefully it wont happen again...fingers crossed

Wicks are not important when drawing major trendlines Ronmould. Use closing prices. They can be used for shadow/secondary lines.

F4T
Ronmould wrote:

Wavesurfer,

The 17443- 17430, does this have to finish / close below in dow open hours?

It went through earlier (futures) , held at 17400 ish then back up.

358 next if broken....
WaveSurfer wrote:

Food4Thought - don't understand how you've drawn your resistance - it clearly doesn't sit on top of the wicks of either the may or october highs?!

Dow 17443 n 430 watch...bulls will want to hold this area...if breaks..big dump

Rgds Ws. ..ready to rock n roll

Chance missed?

It
will come out of the blue...do not fall
ll in love
with upside imo....ant move abv 630... u short

Stick horizontal
l lines on the below numbers...see price action.
WaveSurfer wrote:

Never quite made it to resistance - did yo take a short anyway Remo?

I was watching it at 650 but didn't want to go in early, thought it would breach slightly before pulling back. Still not convinced it won't push a bit higher in next few days, sell off isn't that convincing yet.

...from a non chart view part of me thinks the big boys will keep pumping this for another couple of months while they sell out in time for the market to collapse with the EU referendum....aim for the equivalent of your resistance below on the SPX which is currently around 2100

Trendfriend,

Seems the DOW's struggling today can't get any higher than 16652.

GOLD struggling as well, down 2.5%

I like to compare this market with the last bear phase/market (rightly or wrongly).....

I think this will take it's time to dump imho....i think a small move of about 400/500 points for the whole of April is possible....before the real dump, possibly in May??
Possibly for April a small monthly candle like the yellow dots on the chart, (under the green arrow)
Maybe another 4 or 5 weeks of this real dull slow moving Dow.....and then dump, dump....
Lets see.....ATB and good luck with folks.....
Trendfriend.

perfect short area coming up.
im shorting this today at 17679 during market hours only.My stop is going above near by resistance at 17755
Ive been waiting for this area for a while now so fingers crossed.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21stmarch2016.png

Rich,
you are taking your fib extremes at the wrong points. Either take the low at the Aug/Sept hammer (played out already IMO) or the high at November high of ~18000.

The short point is good though, except on my chart the wick already hit the trendline last week.

F4T

I'm going to have a go shorting where remo mentioned it coninsides with the 76.4% fib and daily downward trendline ...

Wavesurfer,

Sorry, I'm lost.

What does that all mean?

Your short at 17220, and 17560 but I don't understand the 715 etc.

Thanks

No fear...Have N Stick To The plan
220. 560 . 630. 715 dow

Spx 2048. 2054 n 60

Im waiting to short this when it hits that trend line.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow14thmarch2016.png

Hi rich, thanks pal....

Imo we pullback on Monday, how far we see, it's very possible dow can go on to make another higher high from Fridays high.

Would like to dow drop below approx 16940 and 840 n 679 and start closing below these levels back to back.

My view is big money is starting to sell while others that believe new markets high to come n get bylly will start buying esp as spx closed abv 1920. So few few more closes abv this could be poss

I will continue to start building shorts in dow every 100 pips up from 17220 to 17560zone.. from a fib zone look at 76 to 88.6 from this years low to 18000 as area to watch or spx level 2028-56 and considering a hedge long on weakness come monday/ Tues. ...

If market moves down here and takes out at least 1958 to 63 and close below then that will confirm the high is in imo, then the next rally up to form a lower high to add the big ones....

Imo and it's just my opinion the bull is over and ( I'm/WAS a big bull) and this rally up is corrective. Only new all time highs will change my thinking.

Rgds and best of luck.

Ws

Good to see you back WS ...

I went short at 220 for a day trade but from just reading your post looks like I should have held onto to it for a while longer

What other areas are you looking at to add short ?

Remaining long closed. Short building time..stop abv all time highs.

Short added dow 220

Time to be patient.

Just my view....

Taken long profits at 970 with small position in as stop

Hi tf, thanks I will when I can. However will try n post when big trades are on when poss as travelling frequently.

Rgds to all ws

Long dow, scalp target 980, will take time, at price at the time of post, if you shorted squeeze, take some coin but hold core with stop protecting position.


Imo big dump coming...beware but before it comes chop chop...maybe few weeks if chop...Let's see need to see where market closes for a few days....

Where are you Wavesurfer????
We need ya back here please....

Trendfriend.

https://youtu.be/9azjzhoL670
Squeeze n dump.

Bull over.

See u at sub ~11000 dow next year....2017

Dow daily.
Why do i think that's a bear flag??
Watch 16020 bottom of flag....
Regards,
Trendfriend

This charts a bit crap( ok more than a bit!!)
I wanted to show the rounded top, so ignore the bottom of that circle, just see the top part please!
I now think this will eventually make it's way up to the circle before a final dump.
Weekly chart so will take some time to get there, and market will be volatile, but should hit that the rounded top around about where that re arrow is... around 17000 level.
JMHO,
Trendfriend.

if 15370 gets taken out then watch the market really drop hard.Still around 600 points from that area.
Im out of shares for the time being. Have been for a while.I only have been doing short term trades. Its best to wait for a proper 123 low formation before getting new shares.
short term on the dow , if it goes below 15880 today then it should head lower towards 15370.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow28thjan2016.png

Just a quick look here.
This did finally break out of the the bearish channel, expected a substantial bear market rally, but it did not happen so far anyway.
Which leaves me thinking we have a bear flag developing on the hourly.
This looks worth a trade to me, if the flag breaks down, @ 15750... (rising hourly)
This level could well hold, maybe just a pullback to retest the channel.
Failure to hold could well be the start of the next leg down, and would be the signal to short imho...
Wait for flag to breakdown @15750(rising hourly), and then short with tight stops above the flag trendline.
Lets see it plays out today....
Regards,
Trendfriend.

having some fun the Dow atm....
still in this bearish channel failed @ 16040
Until it breaks above the overhead trendline 15375 next?!?!
Regards,
Trendfriend

Hey - got closed out for my pub lunch but went back in when went back over 16650 so got myself another one for Friday at least

I was looking at 14000 area as a possible bottom if it kept going (not today, long term obviously)...i still fancy today as a turning point though!

Hi Ron, hope your well.

Well this really is a nasty day.....you did well to catch winning long trade!!

Any predictions where the final low will be on the dow folks??
I think eventually a move down to 10500 area is possible imho.... possibly 12000 area ....maybe soemwhere between the two numbers??
Some way to go for this down move that's for sure

Lets see,
Trendfriend.

Hey TF - was only small long at 15654, stop already moved up so no worries now.

Will continue to move stop up but I fancy the chance of a break out of the channel now. worst come to worst it's paid for a pub lunch tomorrow anyway

This is still in this channel....until it can can break above its going to keep going down imho...
16280 top of trendline hit yesterday and 15640 down trendline today. so bounce now possible...best case for bounce 15900/15950 area.(falling every 60 mins)
scalp longs ok, but could be small bounces, off the down trendline.

Best place to trade imho is short from the top of the trendline imho..
Regards,
Trendfriend.