remo wrote:
24300 was a beauty, but you're right, this one goes to 25200 (which is 61.8 by my reckoning - happy to be corrected).

And yep Remo, it is brutal - losses are so damned hard to take - it's like pushing a rock up a mountain trying to get the cash back.

But, I'm not sure there's serious strength - i don't know that much to be fair, but this move up wasn't built on any strong foundation (apart from the Fed maybe!)

Yep....gone crazy.....I had to close my shorts for a big loss....then reversed to long.....
It looks like it’s heading towards the 61.8 fib....I will look to short at that level now...and not before..,
Serious strength in the markets.......

longterm_view wrote:
I'll hold on for now....

Massive Spike some +700 points on the Dow after the close.

markets like death and disease. who would have thunk it!

chief66 wrote:
Looks like a H&S to coincide, with TF’s support line.

Heading very close to 22770

If it closes below 23300 would it correct to assume a bearish signal down possibly to 21000?,

Nice chart trendfriend.

Libero wrote:

Sorry, wave 5 down.

I believe we are in wave 4, I think we have topped out and this is the start of wave 5 down, the last in the move.

Then I will get off my hands, (they are going numb) and start buying.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Ycgdtwz1oj4hCjbtw%3D

a lot of stocks seemed to have a unusual type of triangle/wedge sort of formation....almost like a strange type of bear flag...

some of them have broken below those triangles in the last few days...does seem to be a change in sentiment this week imho...

Looking at the dow here on the daily....this also looks to be in this triangle or wedge type of formation...
its also very close to the bottom of the support line...
i make it 23300 (ish) for break below....and it could well provide the momentum trigger for a new phase down....especially if we see the 20 day ema line currently at 22770 taken our as well...

lets see...take it easy folks....and stay safe...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote:
up or down?

Is this the start of the wave 5.

Trendfriend wrote:
Indeed TrendFriend,

JPM reckons US GPD will shrink 40% *annualised* in Q2. (again, lots depending on Q3/Q4).

I think Mo El Erian nailed recently when asked about the "flick the swtich" analogy that so many Market Bulls hold. Massive the hit to the US economy - bigger than the 1930s. Unemployment is already (just a month in) at 14-15% - heading to 20% which is double the financial crisis.

The bull case which was dismanted was around the following points:

1. re-open the economy quickly (already knocked back)

2. flcking the switch will mean return to near-full recovery mode (not possible if businesses are out of business or made lay-offs. It will take longer and will be sequential)

3. No scars over the longer time (how can something like this be forgotten so quickly?)


The reality:

1. more indebted

2. less productive

3. less globalised

But look, I don't have the charts (yet) to back up a bearish case, and the market is forward thinking and always gives companies and alchemists a pass.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...gvsSqvDA/Nlr3J6w+JE=

Be interesting to see which way this goes this week...
looked very bullish last week....

I think the market will at some point realise that this is not going to be a quick fix...flick a switch and we are back to normal again...it may take months if not years to get back pre virus in terms of the economy.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52236936

If this is going to be this bad...then logic would suggest the market should also have the worst drop since the 30's
off course the fed have their own ideas!

have a good week folks....
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Thanks Remo, much appreciated.

When this wave ends, we can work out, where wave 5 will end.

I think the high of the wave is done, slow decline from now, company earnings may be bad.

longterm_view wrote:
How’s this for a count? Chart 1.

If it’s 3 waves, Chart 2?[/quote]

I like the second chart....it looks like you have got the idea of waves..,.the abc, would be the 4th wave....so I’d label that so won’t get confused...
Both of your charts can be right...just depends on the time frames ....

longterm_view wrote:
Thank you LongTerm - was wondering if the numbers vary based on EoD vs 24 hours.

Libero wrote:
Libero

25220, 61.8% fib on Dow.

longterm_view wrote:
LongTerm, tell me what number do you have for 61.8%?

Unmployment ticked up again in the US, and it could be at 25% by May. Now, I know the market is forward thinking, but where's the structure, the plan.

lots of questions!

Libero wrote:
Well that’s the 50% fib gone, only the 61.8% to hold it back.

If not

how many times did the Dow bounce of 23677 (or thereabouts) just in the last 75 minutes....

crazy...

BIT of new from other side of the pond:
Wall Street jumped at the open on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve rolled out a $2.3 trillion program to bolster local governments and businesses, while the initial jobless claims slipped to 6.6 million last week from an upwardly revised 6.87 million the prior week

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...5LN3CjyDhV1IFin4o%3D

the futures have come off 23711....
the 200 day sma is at 23686....the 200 day ema line is at 23818.

be interesting to see if this area gets busted....long weekend coming up....
The dow is making higher highs...but strong resistance from these levels now...if the bears are going to make come back...it should be from around here imvho...so lets see..

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

only 800 points more and we will find out

I normally post with some of my positions showing so it’s easy to see where I entered on a trade...
With waves,,,,,,normally down moves correct in 3 waves and some times it helps to get in early after the 3 wave down as you then can expect the next wave up ...obviously that’s based on up markets m, reverse for down markets...
But based on simple waves you can roughly get an idea of the direction based on strong trends...
Don’t ask me about wave counts...lol....just try and keep it simple....[/quote]

How’s this for a count? Chart 1.

If it’s 3 waves, Chart 2?

Just a bit of news

Dow Futures Gain As Congress Mulls $500 Billion in Fresh Support; Coronavirus Concerns Keep Global Stocks in Check
Stocks continue to track coronavirus infection rates amid a dearth in hard economic data following the wipe out of last night's 900 point rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

I missed the start of that 5 min candle at 20:45 but aside from it's size, what surprised me is that if gapped up at the start.

You only normally see gaps on a futures chart between Friday close and Sunday open - not during actual market open.

Really weird.

longterm_view wrote:

I normally post with some of my positions showing so it’s easy to see where I entered on a trade...
With waves,,,,,,normally down moves correct in 3 waves and some times it helps to get in early after the 3 wave down as you then can expect the next wave up ...obviously that’s based on up markets m, reverse for down markets...
But based on simple waves you can roughly get an idea of the direction based on strong trends...
Don’t ask me about wave counts...lol....just try and keep it simple....

Libero wrote:
Yep,,,saw the move,,,,it took my nice longs out pretty quickly, it actually dropped over 200 points in 30 sec or less...
One minute I’m Long then I’m shot then I’m long and now I’m short...this is day trading....

Libero,

I watched it and was amazed.

I think the dow reversed a 1000 point gain.

2000 dot.com bear market

2000 Aug 2001 Mar -29%
2001 Mar 2001 May +22%
2001 May 2001 Sep -28%
2001 Sept 2002 Jan +24%
2002 Jan 2002 Aug -34%

2008 GFC

2007 Oct 2008 Mar -20%
2008 Mar 2008 May +15%
2008 May 2008 Dec -44%
2008 Dec 2009 Jan +18%
2009 Jan 2009 Mar -28%

2020 CV bear market

2020 Feb 2020 Mar -35%
2020 Mar 2020 Mar +20.5% (so far)

average next down leg (-28+-44)/2 = -36%

2756 x .64 = 1763 downside target


Sorry this should have been posted in the S&P 500

Did any of you good people monitor / watch the US markets near the close last night (just after 20:45 I believe?) there was a mad downward spike, it wiped up any desire for the bulls to take back some control.

it was a hell of a sight (Like LFC beating Barca - that one is for TF! )

chart attached to show the moment (and it was a moment!) that I'm refering to in the 5min Dow.

Remo,

Many thanks for clarifying. It really helps with analysing it all.

I would usually wait for the 1-2-3 target to hit, before exiting the trade, but I see you use multiple time frames. Interesting.

I suppose it helps that you know what wave we are in. I looked at that once.

Many thanks for all your help, it is much appreciated.

Now I’ve gone long on the Dow....
As you can see I’m always willing to change direction pretty quickly...
But there is a head and shoulders formation on the hourly so keep an eye on that....If it drops below 22350 then I’d go short again...

I use hourly charts a lot for bigger direction, and use 5 and 1 minute charts for earlier entry...

Overall I’m still expecting the indexes to go lower in the medium term...But look to the charts for clearer direction

"there's a hundred different ways to win a football game" quote from Jurgen Klopp....(lifelong Liverpool fan here)

well there's a hundred different ways to analyse these markets as well!
They could all be right.... and they could all be wrong...
Its what make a unique and dynamic market place...
for me i was watching the weekly chart...

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zp65hI+x+bkA47oryD8=
i was watching the 200 day sma as well as the 200 day ema line on the weekly....
had feeling it was going to test that level.... very often a bearish index or stock turns just short of key retest level...so i caught it as it was falling.....only to see it rally back....but then it got smashed into the close.....

if we are talking about retesting.... how about a retest of the falling t/line on the broadening triangle then?
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...yCLj4JHfVrbcA3W9c%3D

good luck all....and keep banking those coins everyone...but most importantly stay safe and healthy during these testing times..
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote:
Hi long term,
Yes, but I watch closely before entering....also it was after the third wave move down that I new it was likely to be the next up wave back up....
I’m now short on the Dow....lol...seen how the markets were turning down fast....

This entry was also based on a potential 123 high n the hourly...

Dow more or less opened at the gap and just declined from there. This coincided with FTSE 123 low resistance at 5780 ish today.

Watch out for the gaps, fibs and trendlines

Good call trendfriend.

I think Jerome's gonna need a bigger bazooka

remo wrote:
Remo, many thanks for the charts and info.

I understand why you took the 1-2-3 low trade, on the daily basis.

Did you take the first trade,(based on your chart above) on the hourly? Was it a breakout of the consolidation? As attached chart?

Many thanks in advance.

Paitech wrote:
didn't i say I must have misread it.


anyway, the markets are pulling back.

Fear and Fomo bring out the same emotions in people.....i think we are seeing both of those in these markets!

The expectations of the market and the reality is way apart imvho....

Does look like the p/b has started....grabbed a short....lets see...
Looks like a race to the exits....and this should close down now imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Libero wrote:
Libero, if you read it, TF was surprised why the air lines were up.
Debt is a problem, but today the survival was more important, and hence easyjet up.
They would need to survive first and debt can be dealt with later on....

Paitech wrote:
Excuse me Paitech, I must have misread it...

The Dow thread, the markets, easyjet rising amongst others.... I figured you meant the markets are up because of easyjet

Anyway, I get what you mean - they've been given a life-line. Still, my position on DEBT stands.

Debt will weigh heavily once the eurphoria passes.

Libero, its about Easyjet. I read without that money, by june it would have been close the shop...
so eventhough its debt, that lets it carry on more....
Most business runs on Debt, not on full cash....

The Dow is very close to exiting bear market territory remarkably. 23640 is the target.

Trendfriend wrote:
Yep, I hear you loud and clear Trendfriend. I shorted both the FTSE and SPX (see entries in each respective threads, but I'm not hanging around - lots of retail investors missed the rally yesterday want to hold the bag today it seems).

Stay Safe!

Paitech wrote:
Not sure that's the reason the markets are flying - or why Easyjet is performing.

The money EasyJet have secured isn't revenue or profit or a lottery win. It's DEBT.

Debt either has to be paid back, defaulted on, or issued against bonds or equities - Any of these will have an adverse effect on the SharePrice.

For now, the market is euphoric so, they'll ride the ride - I'd say be cautious. and remember that old quote "It's the hope that kills ya".

This is the reason....

Easyjet confirmed last night that it had secured a £600 million loan from the Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF), issued by HM Treasury and the Bank of England.

In addition the carrier has drawn down $500 million (£407 million) from its Revolving Credit Facility, raising cash reserves to around £2.3 billion.

The news came on the same day that Easyjet’s founder and largest shareholder Stelios Haji-Ioannou again called for the carrier’s £4.5 billion contract with Airbus to be cancelled, warning that failure to do so could see the airline run out of money “around August 2020, perhaps even earlier”.

Well this is almost bordering on insanity imvho...
Airlines whose planes are all grounded are up 25% today based on what exactly?

i'm so tempted here to short the dow....so i dusted the ig markets account down and put a couple of orders in put in with tight stops....
23811 with 150 pips stop

if that fails to hold then 24291 again with a 150 pip stop...

i'm also looking to short bp and ezj....and one or two others...
so lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

Great post Jackozy (we've missed you man, it has been ages!)

the 25,240 on the dow looks very ominous; but we're talking about another 2000 point move before retracement; that's a hell of a bid bet for the markets to be making at a time where massive challenges are ahead.

As expected, the downtrend breakout came:


We must remember that really fast moves have no stability so counter moves will usually also be fast/strong.

Will be interesting to see what happens around the 25240 61.8% Fib level. Like FTSE, there's also a gap near this Fib.