GKP

One serious counter to that Learning on the fundamental side is the cashburn which means unless the money owed by the KRG is paid soon (and are they even able to...?) then GKP will hit more trouble soon. It already has a lot of debt at fairly onerous terms. Continuing production is good but how will the need for more money play out? Still very tricky to call which I think is reflected in both F4T and TF 's downbeat TA assessments.

Slow Eddie

You are absolutely correct, but I'm not talking long or even medium term, just 'the mood of the moment' as even if this is a P&D, the TA combined with positive vibes will help us to take some profits and God knows, some of the LTH's deserve to recover something!

I don't want this site to turn into a BB like iii or LSE as in my view the primary driver of GKP has become the TA but if the City wants to P&D it, it helps if we are reading the TA in alignment with them.

F4T has given us the benefit of his investment in TA and I just wanted to try and give something back. I could be completely misreading the signs but I think the City wants us back up over the next few days/weeks and I want to know whether to consider taking profits at 96/1.04/116 etc. In the short term GKP will behave as the City wants it to regardless of real fundamentals.

I enjoy your posts over on iii BTW - very balanced and down to earth.

The over-riding problems with IS in Kurdistan are obviously not something within the control of the BOD, but have undoubtedly had a major effect of the SP in recent months, and will continue to do so until such time as it is safe for foreign workers to return to the area.
From a TA viewpoint it is essential the recent low of 61 is not breached otherwise we are looking to 43 and, at prices as low as these, even with the IS situation, this has to be a lucrative TO target...
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...td%20%28daily%29.png

Hi Diver,

Where are we now with the wave count in your opinion.

SRB

Hi Learning and thanks for your thoughts and fundamental comments.

The beauty of TA is that it saves you reading, deciphering and cogitating all that fundamental stuff, a lot of which is nonsense. TA reads the mood of the market and that is all you need. All you need to know is if the market is bullish, bearish or neutral on the stock.

If I am trading a company I do read the company news and always have an understanding of it's position. It would be foolish not to, but particularly with small caps, much of it can be taken with a pinch of salt. I've been there and believe me, I have never come across such a badly run company as GKP and i have been involved in a good few small caps. I have never come across a company where so many ordinary people lose money but continue to believe the BS and then lose more money. It is worrying.

I am sorry to say that that is why it is such a good trading share, because if you make money it is probably a PI on iii that is losing it.

20B barrels to 630MM. Director voted out of the company by shareholders but still keeps his job and salary. No more meeds to be said.

TA is much simpler, quicker and safer. All it takes in a bit of study and the ability to follow some simple rules that are generally contra to normal human behavior/instinct. Remember, it is humans you are trying to beat.

GL
F4T

Hey, I'm new posting here and want to add if I can. Please don't take offence - With constant lower highs, we can keep counting those 5 waves down and ABC corrections on and on, trading the counts down short or going long on the corrective waves, but - at some point the trend will change - unless you think the company will go bankrupt right? I mean CEY - Egypt, even GPX in Syria - there's money to be made. To say 20bb to 630mm is a bit misleading because surely if you trade oil shares you know that only a percentage is recoverable,and I don't recall anyone saying 20bb was recoverable, though maybe I don't read iii enough! LOL! - I mean to think oip of a field is all recoverable...Not meaning to stoke an arguement, shit now I sound like someone on iii(erm I just trade charts honest guv), but the facts are that the CPR is on a fraction of the field and the MNR especially Dr Hawarami is corrupt as fck! Basically Kurdistan owns Shaikan they are in charge here, I mean I've never seen a government post a letter to refute an article in the Times. What's that all about! - the MNR/KRG are not going to tell Baghdad, oh Shaikan has more potential than Rumaila...oh no, no no. Anyway Fib extensions from low 61p to swing high 89.75 to yesteday's low gives 161.8% extension at 116.77p - a double top to previous high spike. So if the 89.75p is wave 1 high, wave 3 could be a double top and a wave 5 could give us a higher high, coupled with a 'potential' inverse head and shoulders (right shoulder now forming) bullish reversal, this could well be it! Though people have been saying this since £4 odd so I see why this share should carry a health warning LOL! So F4T you're dead right to apply caution "where so many ordinary people lose money but continue to believe the BS and then lose more money. It is worrying." RESPECT! So - erring on the side of caution - stay in cash, trade a break of neckline on volume if pattern completes, stop just below, add on backtest and jump out at double top, wait for pullback and see if it is a 3 with a 4 pullback or just correction waves to downtrend IMO.