GKP

Hi F4T,

Out of interest what are your reasons for 210/217 based on?

I had an order at 202 this morning - too greedy for my own good! However have since moved this down to 189 based on the original breakout point but also bearing in mind any fibonacci retrace of this particular move up.

I saw Jackozy's posts on iii and tend to agree with his thinking. Although I don't trade based on EWT the move down to 173 was uncanny and if applying a fib extension of the move then wave 3 did not disappoint.

Keen to hear you thoughts,
M.

Hi Monkeyz,

why a rise to 229/230? - 217 area has has been tested twice and 3 is an important number in trading, gap is next real target / resistance area and engulfing candle yesterday suggests a further rise.

Why 217? - 217 area has shown resistance in past and on this rise - resistance becomes support.
Why 210? - natural number for an overshoot of 217 IMO,psychological round number, some consolidation there in recent days so makes a good bounce point.

This move from 162 is also a little overextended. It needs to give some back before possibly going higher. The gap is a sensible and strong resistance target to suck in a few more excited PI bulls before smart money reduces.

All IMO of course.
F4T

Morning F4T,

Appreciate your comments.

230 is naturally the gap and had served as previous support in October of this year. It would also coincide with the length of the rise from the move up from 163 to 187 (24pts) and if we measure my presumed low of 205 + 24 = 229.

Agree that this move is a little overextended and it would be healthy for some of the heat to come off the indicators.

All the best,
M.

I am a little hesitant to hit the sell button until I see a change in sentiment, even if it pushes through 230p (could be tomorrow) who is prepared to sell just because it has hit a theoretical target?
I would want to see a sign that the buying pressure (over 10 million traded today) has subsided or something to indicate the "smart money" is exiting.

Anyone else got some thoughts on what to look out for, I don't have DMA and I work during the day, so it is difficult to see what is really happening.

All I know is that my free shares (been in since 11p and took my capital out long ago) have had a great run, and I would welcome the chance to bank the profit at the top (for once) and re-buy at a lower level to increase my number of shares.

From Jackozy's thoughts, it could go something like this:

Sell at 230p (gap resistance)
Buy back at 187p (61.8% for a wave 2)

Sell at 298p (peak of Wave 3)
Buy back at 256p (38.2% retrace from 298p to form wave 4)

Sell at 329p (peak of 5th wave)

A working example form my own freebies:

GKP TRADE STRATEGY
Sell 5000 shares @ 230p = £11,500
Buy back @ 187p = 6149 Shares

Sell 6149 shares @298p = £18324
Buy back @ 256p = 7157 Shares

Sell 7157 shares @ 329p = £23,549
Increase = £12,049
% increase = 104.77 %


Alternative Strategy, If held and not traded:

Sell 5000 shares at 329p = £16,450

A bit of trading could potentially net me some £7,099

if only it was this simple !!!

I sold the 10000 I bought at 205.25 yesterday for a 20p gain today.
Bit of fun, really.
I can't see any fundamental justification for the sharp rise other than the market putting back some of the value it took away from the start of the court case. But a judgement might not come until May/June, and the politics aren't great right now ... so a lot can happen. Perhaps there are whispers coming from MOL's direction, but the one thing I rule out just now is any thought of an imminent t/o. The conditions in Kurdistan are not right for it yet.

Anyway, sorry to pollute a chart board with a fundamental view, but it does help me see how Jacko's retrace is very possible.

Jackozy wrote:

followNev wrote: Remo

GKP seems to bring out the best in every board.
Maybe this share should have it's own forum, so that the bickering continues else where.

On a TA note, i found P&F charts worked the best with GKP last time. , Twas very clear when to buy and sell.

Hi Nev,

May I ask...what box sizes did you use?

TIA

Sorry, been away for a couple of days and missed this!

Surely you remember the good old days where I would post a chart, saying moving my stop up. Others were becoming millionaires and I was thinking, "Must keep Profits" . Then when the charts tumbled for the first time
I was happy to get out.
Box size 1% , 3 box reversal
The charts were provided for free and I trusted the closing prices.

I saw Remo's Metastock blog post in their news letter. Would be great if we could get a template for Metastock so that we are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I learnt a lot from P&F , Mainly to look LEFT on any chart. Look for the points where price hits multiple times. Works a dream.