GKP

171p broken. But is an inverse head and shoulders forming from mid 2012? And will 164p be the bottom?

Optimistic. I'd wait for a 1-2-3 low on the lower timeframes before getting involved with GKP. Currently nursing a couple of longs which will get the chop tomorrow if it carries on down. It's just not showing any appetite at the moment.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Oct...Ltd%20081013%20D.png

Below today's low would invalidate a wave 2 retrace would it not Jackozy or Diver? Do you have any views on alternate counts?

Cheers,
M.

Whilst a wave 2 retrace is usually 61.80% of wave 1 it is not set in stone and can run to 76.4% or 85.4%. What is for sure is, it cannot be 100% of wave 1.
My stop is at 164.50 so maybe I better extend it a couple of points if Bonobo's H&S is gonna work-out. I had the top of wave 1 at 166.00 which was why I opted for my stop. The next major support would then be the low of Dec 2012 at 161.00.

Diver

Morning folks,

Not got my charts open yet, but a couple of points (lovin' your projection post iHS B77 - a touch of poetic license?? lol)...

Diver's right that a wave 2 can retrace more than 61.8%. It can even retrace all the way (100%) but NOT more, though this is rare.

Of concern to me at the moment is the fact that GKP is barely reacting to any support levels, some of them quite major, and also the fact that there appears to have been a failure to produce a convincing wave 4 on the way up to 240p. It's still possible, as long as 166p holds, that this could be wave 4 but that would be exceptionally weak if so.

The two primary options in my view are, therefore, that this is wave 2 down which means the bottom is hard to pick (ref Monkeyz 123-low idea) or the whole move from 126p to 240p was a 3 wave corrective move and it's going much lower eventually.

My preference is the former (dare I invoke fundamentals to support this view lol??!!), but I remain cautious. If it is a wave 2 then there's an interesting projection: if wave A of 2 was 240 to 203, B of 2 was 203 to 220, then a 161.8% extension of A from B comes in at 160p - very close to a known, significant, support at 161p - which could support B77's iHS view, albeit with a rather bent and twisted neck!

Funding concerns and general market fear have clearly taken their toll here but it's interesting to note that since the rise to 166p from 126p, the availablity of stock to short has been either very restricted or completely non-existent to PI based trading platforms. Has anyone got an explanation as to how that's possible? The stock is clearly being either heavily sold (someone exiting a big position in anticipation of a 50m share placing?) and/or shorted, so if the instis can short it, why haven't we been able to? Very frustrating...

Oh, well...there are plenty of other fish in the sea!

PS This is the sort of thing you get when you have massive rises without consolidation and/or 46p gap ups - there's just not support and downside momentum builds as it drops through the liftshaft and becomes difficult to stop - there's been plenty of buying at the supports but the bears have so much momentum from the 240p to 187p drop that they're hard to stop.

It's been the same with the Dow/SPX - the rise from 14780 to 15722 was so fast with little consolidation it's no surprise that the drop has mirrored it. Shame I didn't keep that short from 15671 lol!

I was thinking of wave 4's rather than wave 2's last night! Cheers.

If this were a wave 2 then optimistically could we be looking at the end of a C wave down with B having been borne out on the 16/17th September? Pessimistically still in wave A of 2 down?

Like you say plenty more out there!