GKP

IMHO if there's a 123-low breakout on this then the really key area is 127p. If it can get above (and preferably close above) than then there's a reasonable chance that the bottom is in at 82p. That doesn't mean it'll power on though - there's massive resistance in the gap area between 138p and 144p. Here's a daily chart which I'll try to explain briefly:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily12_04_14.png

I said in chat a while ago that the form of any initial rise should help us identify where this is going. However, as it's GKP, there's still room for doubt lol!

The question is whether the rise from 82p to 108.5p (109p) has a 3 wave form or a 5 wave form. If it's the former then it's unlikely that 82p was the bottom. The funny thing is, that little triangle throws a little doubt on the matter. You can see it more clearly on an hourly:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPhourly12_04_14.png

As you can see, the move up can easily be counted both ways (not uncommon) but the fact that it bounced off the 61% Fib at 92.5p (so far) is encouraging as it's deep enough to be a wave 2 (I'd expect a B wave to have bounced higher).

Since this does not give us sufficient clarity, the next best thing we can look to, assuming a 123-low breakout does occur, is where the next short term top comes in. The previous bounce off 97p in mid March went to 127p. This is therefore our cut-off area; a move above that would suggest that the current move from 82p is unlikely to be corrective (ie followed by new lows) since it would violate the EWT wave 4 *guideline* (emphasis on guideline - it's NOT a rule). If 127p holds it back then we're still in doubt and will have to wait for other signs (which I won't go into now).

If bullish then the target for the next move up (again, caveat "assuming it happens") should be 134p and this ties in with my view of the importance of 127p. That said, even if 127p holds it back it doesn't mean it's not bullish - it's all about balance of probability!

Either way, there's huge resistance in the 127-144p area so that would be a good place to take profit (caveat) IMHO.

Interestingly (and speculatively) a bullish sequence of minor waves here should, in theory, go as follows: 82p > 108/9p > 92p > 134p > 117p > 143p and then a retrace to c. 105p and that ties in nicely with the gap where we'd expect a decent pullback anyway.

What jolly fun this share has been!

Good luck!

Thankyou as ever Mr J.
I have watched this share over the years and moves seem to happen with indecent rapidity and if what you suggest transpires,then the question is whether to exit positions just north of 130 or at the gap around 140?
I know it's only a few points but they all add up.

Hi Roxy,

There's no way of knowing in advance, we just have to read the price action as it occurs.

We're some way off right now and we've not even had the breakout yet. Then there's 120p and 127p to worry about. Assumptions of upside in this share have been the downfall of many.

Of that there is no doubt and i stand guilty as charged.
Mr J,do you have access to any associated point and figure,up and down?

Jacko I know exactly what you mean about the 127 price: this is the May 8th 2013 low mentioned in my post and was the previous swing-low which needs breaking to confirm a trend change. However, to class it as a 123 low it would have to be the low and that currently belongs to the 81.93 on April 1st. What Remo looks for with these moves is a retest of the next high above the low, in this case 108.96 on April 9th; which is why he is looking to enter at a break of 109.

Yes, 126/7 is resistance from that 2013 low but that's only part of the story. Also, I'm not referring to it as part of a 123-low formation so I think you've slightly misunderstood my post. I'm saying that it's a possible wave 4 high of some degree so if it gets taken out then it's less likely that the current move is a wave 4 of larger degree.

Just something to watch IF we get the 123 breakout first.