Lloyds

Hi Amo,

I think you've got the options covered there. There's no way to know for sure, but my money would be on this being a wave 4, possibly down to the 38.2% Fib of the wave 3 at c. 43.8p.

I've based that on having achieved the 161.8% extension of wave 1 up. I also think that what we think is wave 3 has a nice set of subwaves with an extended 5th subwave.

Only time will tell I'm afraid.

I'll have another look later on or tomorrow to see if I can see anything more definitive. Not at my best today due to a couple too many watching England beat Ireland yesterday!

Cheers for the post's guys. Lloyds end of year results are at the end of the month so this could have an impact on what happens next.

Amo/Jackozy

Just following your thoughts on lloyds and would like to know, if we dont visit the 38% fib area of 43.8p in the coming days but instead we finish above the recent high of 55.63 does that mean wave 4 is over and now wave 5 is in play or bceause we did not have that full retracement were are still in wave 3.

Thanks in advance

I'm quite new to EWT myself so struggling with that answer. Also not sure how accurate the following guidelines are but you could try making sense of wave 4 description to see how it matches with the chart. I personally think whether this is wave 4 or a sub wave 3 of wave 3 either way we will see this continue to rise.

www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

Charts aside sentiment seems high with Banks after Barc results and LLoyds are to follow end of the month. On the other hand maybe its starting to look a little too bullish. As Jackozy said, only time will tell.

Hi SRB,

Again, it's impossible to know for sure. A 38.2% retrace is comon for a wave 4 but not a requirement. When really bullish we sometimes see 23.6% or even less.

If it does go on to new highs before getting to the mid-40s then I'd look to see if there's a bearish RSI divergence at a resistance on the daily chart.

Quite often there will be such a divergence between the highs of waves 3 and 5.

If you can get in on or near a wave 2 low the best thing is just to let the trade run with the trend until you get a sell signal such as the above. Even if you miss selling near the top, there will usually be a second chance to sell when the SP forms a lower high on the way down (either wave 2 up of A down, b up of A down or simply the top of B up).

Best to not try and be too clever and stick with the trend. I know from personal experience!

Jackozy,

So you still think Mid 40's is a possibility based on EWT even if we see 55.63 breached?

Thanks
Amo