DOW

Interesting development here, but this could be a simple range-bound pullback (energy), before giving another high a go.

I'd like to see the Dow (obviously the SPX too!) retreat further say, south of 25,840 before I'd say that a correction is in place.

See how we're all coming up with different numbers

The anticipated top (Fib 100%) may be stalled by the fact that everyone was expecting it to happen as a formality.

Now, the market is forward thinking obviously, so they aren't too bothered with what's happening now. However, what's happening now could set the tone for what might happen later:

1. Inequality protests and riots may a) create the envirnoment for a second wave, and b) impact consumer and desire / confidence (not just from covid, but from CS gas or a brick to the head - anything is possible); c) speaking of consumre confidence, how long is the Treasury and Fed going to keep paying "wages" for the soon to be unemployed?

2. Chairman Mao, excuse me, Chairman Powell, said that we'll have zero rates until 2023, that means forever, which could be mean asset bubbles - but market forces will tell you that you can't inflate insolvent and bankrupt companies forever (or who knows right!)

3. Upcoming US Elections vs International Relations - Tried gaming this one, and decided to have a lie down as my head really hurt (or maybe that just a horse or tear gas can or a brick that hit me!)

Irrational exuberance & Moral Hazard - may be terms that we be heard more frequently.... Hell, maybe they need to be redefined when kids with a gambling tendency are buying Bankrupt shares like Hertz using fractional facilities offered by brokers (book-keepers) - when sports come back, that money could find another place

Be safe people - we're all watching this move closely to see if it's genuine or simply profit taking / coiling the spring before the next move up.

On smaller time frame if it is wave 4 then i'll be looking for its most basic pattern, like on the chart below(also other shapes are possible), we will have a big clue around 24900 area if reached, according to ewt rules wave 4 can not overlap wave 1 therefore very strong support at this level, but its Dow and can do anything so pls dyor, it's just my ideas

If we about to go all the way down then something like this may be seen

And if somehow we make new high like Nasdaq did then its most likely going to be wave 3 of 3 of grand supercycle, probably most powerful wave ever

madmaxx wrote: And if somehow we make new high like Nasdaq did then its most likely going to be wave 3 of 3 of grand supercycle, probably most powerful wave ever

Love your charts madmaxx - keep them coming!


See on the long term - grand supercycle (and I'm not wave theorist by any means nor do I subscribe to wave theory, but do respect it - I'm simply giving my macro take), your projection could very well happen, simply because the anticpated "hyper-inflation" everyone is associating with the Fed Printing is only likely to occur in assets; why? because those trillions aren't going to be in the hands of Joe or Jane six-pack.

The bulk of the Fed liquidity will be in a closed (and unholy) circle. Zimbabwe, Venusuala, Weimar Republic this is NOT. Inflation will be preserve of the markets, certain asset classes and some commodities.

Fed printing could however, export inflation to the rest of the world with developing nations hit hardest. That could (and will) happen - its already started to happen; and yes, that will also mean the UK - especially in a post-brexit world where the GBP will be more vulnerable.

Ergo, Dow 45,000 is possible over the next 5-7 years.

But, us "traders" are more interested in what happens next, and i'm intrigued to see if the Cash Open at 2:30pm will convince people to buy the dip. I'm strictly selling rallies for fish n chip money.

For forward thinking market i can see one of scenarios in favour of further bull market, where lockdown could be in place policed by whatever means necessary, and industrial revolution 2.0 take place in the meantime. We must remember 5g technology is coming and it opening ways for so advanced technology that is hard to believe can be seen in our life time. Robotics,Self driving cars, artificial intelligence, internet of things, hydrogen.
People are not ready for such a revolution and therefore must be keep away from transforming the world,i know its a bit harsh, maybe they will let us enjoy it making but many work places will be lost and current virus situation i can see as preparation for bigger things to come. Some people more related to this technologies are saying this could be like jumping onto big cliff in development of civilization. Some of them prefer natural growth but some wants to make it as quick as possible and if market keep rising this fast it not hard to see which way we might be going.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PK1M+25fnNW6El0tQEU=

make no mistake here...a island reversal is very much a trend change pattern imvho...
this is going to do a island reversal in some style

25,000 level is the key imvho....that's where the dow needs to stay above....watch that level now and the rsi.....
break below both....then

Initially though it would be just a small p/b....but this looks dangerous here...
For me the Fed have put themselves between a rock and a hard place here imho....with the Nasdaq hitting new highs...the dow and s&p rallying nicely do they keep pumping money into this??
The market is sending a very clear signal today...will the Fed have the will to keep putting this trillions in??

lets see...nice charts and posts guys....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend