DOW

Hi
One lesson I learnt from Remo is to always watch the Dow when you need a clearer picture and ignore the noise. The lack of a high in the Dow is worrying me and I am concerned that this rise could still be a B wave of a bigger ABC decline. In which case the bottom of A wave in early Feb may get taken out in March/April. So until that high on Dow gets taken, I am a bit cautious. I like Dow leading rather than following.

Could it be Ukraine/Russia be the trigger?

Gee

Too early to suggest that this is a black swan, but Dow Futures opened down (-130) / gold opens up (by +10)

Funny how events sometimes conspire to fit the charts



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily28_02_14.png

This war that's hanging over the world can make the markets jumpy ...so careful trading the indexes ..

Possible double top formation???
Worth a short on first attempt only at the recent high at 16588.
This will be a first attempt trade during market hours only.
Ive got a 40 point stop on this trade.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow11thmarch2014.png

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Looks like we should expect a completion of the retrace on the indicies. My view of the DOW follows my normal pattern in that I'm looking for support within the area of the 50 - 61.80% fibonacci retrace of the previous move up. In this case from 15338 > 16514 - it's highlighted in blue on the chart. There's support at 15,791 and also, a little below at 15.724, if that doesn't hold.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/US%2...20Cash%20%28-%29.png

A similar approach on the S&P500 gives support at 1,811.90 & 1,813.40


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/FTSE...sh%20%28daily%29.png

The FTSE is becoming a very complex correction and therefore my reading of it could well be completely wrong, however, my interpretation is we are now in an irregular flat with the 3rd leg due to end at 6213 support, again in the blue area of extension. There are alternatives, obviously, the favourite being a running flat, in which case we would already be into the next wave. In view of the expected action in the other two indicies, this appears unlikely.

These are just my views and are subject to change. They are not intended as guidance for trades so please DYOR.