DOW

The main trend line was back tested yesterday perfectly. This spells trouble for indexes and lower prices will likely follow. Perfect trade was possible yesterday.

far away view


close up view...


Look how perfect that back test was yesterday This clear;y shows the power of technical at work

This looks like the start of a bear market and my first target is 13800(38.2fib) on the dow followed by 11000 (61.8fib)ultimate target(worst case). The only way this can be negated is if the dow can break above the trend line break and finish above it for a few days.

i was looking at this closely this morning, and i came up with chart below...(the chart does'nt show todays action)
Then i saw Remo's post and i wasnt brave enough to go against him and post it here... lol
This is the chart.. Monthly Dow...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...9Q=&symbol=undefined

I was seeing that every year around july/aug and early sep, we get a big pullback...
You can see what i mean with the red lines in my chart...

I don't trade indices, just keep a eye on the dow, coz its the leader...
I was thinking this was just a Aug pullback/correction... although this is a stronger, and a bigger pullback than most years, its still only a Aug pullback.... its to early too say this is end of te bull run imho...
I'm thinking this will now rally into year end and even possibly make a new high....

Now i've posted this, watch it tank tomorrow...

Regards,
Trendfriend.

the dow has to finish and stay above the broken trend line for a few days to negate the break. The dow is way to volatile currently to place any real good trades. Ive not seen it this volatile for ages.
This period in the year is normally when the traders are away on holiday.go away in may and come back in September .

This looks like it closed back above the trendline today...
Weekly chart...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Close up shows a nice hammer on the weekly, lets see how it closes tomoorrow... it could a sign this will move higher...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI
Regards,
Trendfriend.

What are the implications that it has "pierced" the trend line?
Can this signal more downside to come?
Likely a relief rally ?

Looking at the Fibonacci retracements:-
The Low of 15370 on 24th August is around the 38%(15315) retracement from 2011 or just below the 23% Fibonacci of 15547 all the way from 2009.

now that we see a finished above the Main Trend Line, i think Looking at the 200 day Moving average is important, which is currently 17213 & is 61.% back the other way from 24thAug & do need a move above this for me to be thinking this is not a dead cat bounce!

www.dropbox.com/s/uyqk82qoiokqwnj/DJ30%2...20TrendLine.png?dl=0