DOW

longterm_view wrote:

remo wrote: There has been a 123 low on the Dow daily...
I’m currently long but it’s only for the short term as remember, bear markets last around 6-9 months minimum...and it’s no way over just yet....there is way to many bad news out there and America is in a bad place currently and very likely to fall once they realise how bad they are ...
Even if we have seen the worst of the virus in Europe it’s done the damage to the world economy so the effects will only be seen in the next few quarters so very doubtful that we have bottom just yet...
I’m currently long and will go short at the fibs...

Remo, many thanks for the charts and info.

I understand why you took the 1-2-3 low trade, on the daily basis.

Did you take the first trade,(based on your chart above) on the hourly? Was it a breakout of the consolidation? As attached chart?

Many thanks in advance.

Hi long term,
Yes, but I watch closely before entering....also it was after the third wave move down that I new it was likely to be the next up wave back up....
I’m now short on the Dow....lol...seen how the markets were turning down fast....

This entry was also based on a potential 123 high n the hourly...

"there's a hundred different ways to win a football game" quote from Jurgen Klopp....(lifelong Liverpool fan here)

well there's a hundred different ways to analyse these markets as well!
They could all be right.... and they could all be wrong...
Its what make a unique and dynamic market place...
for me i was watching the weekly chart...

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zp65hI+x+bkA47oryD8=
i was watching the 200 day sma as well as the 200 day ema line on the weekly....
had feeling it was going to test that level.... very often a bearish index or stock turns just short of key retest level...so i caught it as it was falling.....only to see it rally back....but then it got smashed into the close.....

if we are talking about retesting.... how about a retest of the falling t/line on the broadening triangle then?
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...yCLj4JHfVrbcA3W9c%3D

good luck all....and keep banking those coins everyone...but most importantly stay safe and healthy during these testing times..
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Now I’ve gone long on the Dow....
As you can see I’m always willing to change direction pretty quickly...
But there is a head and shoulders formation on the hourly so keep an eye on that....If it drops below 22350 then I’d go short again...

I use hourly charts a lot for bigger direction, and use 5 and 1 minute charts for earlier entry...

Overall I’m still expecting the indexes to go lower in the medium term...But look to the charts for clearer direction

Remo,

Many thanks for clarifying. It really helps with analysing it all.

I would usually wait for the 1-2-3 target to hit, before exiting the trade, but I see you use multiple time frames. Interesting.

I suppose it helps that you know what wave we are in. I looked at that once.

Many thanks for all your help, it is much appreciated.

Did any of you good people monitor / watch the US markets near the close last night (just after 20:45 I believe?) there was a mad downward spike, it wiped up any desire for the bulls to take back some control.

it was a hell of a sight (Like LFC beating Barca - that one is for TF! )

chart attached to show the moment (and it was a moment!) that I'm refering to in the 5min Dow.

2000 dot.com bear market

2000 Aug 2001 Mar -29%
2001 Mar 2001 May +22%
2001 May 2001 Sep -28%
2001 Sept 2002 Jan +24%
2002 Jan 2002 Aug -34%

2008 GFC

2007 Oct 2008 Mar -20%
2008 Mar 2008 May +15%
2008 May 2008 Dec -44%
2008 Dec 2009 Jan +18%
2009 Jan 2009 Mar -28%

2020 CV bear market

2020 Feb 2020 Mar -35%
2020 Mar 2020 Mar +20.5% (so far)

average next down leg (-28+-44)/2 = -36%

2756 x .64 = 1763 downside target


Sorry this should have been posted in the S&P 500