GKP

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

A fairly standard expectation for a retrace is between the 50 - 61.8% levels; that said it would be normal to expect a retrace to a support in that area - and so we get 57. Of course, there is nothing set in stone and the sp certainly doesn't have to stop there. Obviously, if the 48 fails the downtrend continues and things are really bleak....

Hi Diver,

I use fibs as follows:
- 23.6%, 38.2% & 50% retrace = normal retraces as trend/move continues. The shallower the retrace, the stronger the trend.
- between 50% and 61.8% retrace = trend/move in danger of failing/reversing
- more than 61.8% = likely/high risk of 100% retrace of move. Think of the mountain climber! 61.8% is the last point of no return.

I believe that the above is usual for technicians.

I agree with your other points.

Cheers
F4T

Thought i'd review the charts again!

Monthly:
Not much to report here. Falling wedge, clear downtrend, support in the 47.50 area


Weekly:
Much more interesting. Same formation, long term support in 49 area then 34 for the wedge, RSI resistance held once again. RSI support looks to correspond to 34 support.


Daily:
Trendline supports at 52.50 and 45.25. Horizontal at 48.50. RSI approaching short term support line (certainly touched today), so we will see if it holds. Long term RSI support looks to correspond to 45.25 long term trendline support.



In summary, volume has been low recently (since the last rise to 85). Time for volatility and volume approaching IMO.

SP touched the first daily support area today. If this breaks to close then all timeframes indicate a break of 50 which threatens the 48.50 horizontal support.

So the question is how low will this go? I see a continued drift lower, certainly to 45 and with 34 a possibility.

It's a long time until the financials come out so crude oil will remain the driver here. The $60 talk has turned quickly to sub $40. IMO if the talk is there then the traders will target those levels, particularly if US stockpiles continue to grow.

GL
F4T

Quick update on the daily:
The test and then break of the important 61.6% fib let to it becoming strong resistance for a week. We then had a decisive break of the short term support at 53.50 to give all but a complete 100% retracement. Lovely double backtest on the short term RSI line.

Will 48.50 hold? No, not now we have a close below 50. My view is still that we will see at least 45.25, being the long term support.

Let's see if we get some kind of operational update now that we are below 50

GL
F4T

Thank you again for your thoughts F4T

You da' man F4T!