GKP

Well Done!! Remo for the call

Got to admit I'm on with Greenhill and don't quite understanding the move up. I was watching the trades today, it looked like more were being sold that bought. a lot late trades appear to be sell too.

Could it be that a lot of buys were though other types of trading spread trading and CFD trades
What are the views on that?,

What levels,should be consider to watch out for given today's movement. entry and exits and new stop loss points

Don't want to get caught out got quite a few meeting over the next couple of days and will not be able to keep a close eye on the share price.

regard Tej

Hi OG,

I think remo and diver have answered you question but here's my own take.

Here's a weekly chart showing why 161p is important:


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPweekly15_05_13.gif

The 145p and 155p levels come into play as shown here:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily15_05_13a.gif

145/6p was the bottom of the previous channel down (and the Fib extension as diver mentioned) and 155p is where the old uptrend support is now and this could act as a resistance.

The question we all want to know the answer to is this: Is this the start of a new trend up or just another correction with a final low to come?

For me, a close above 161p would make a new low below 126p quite unlikely (but not impossible) and would strongly suggest a new trend up.

A drop below 137.5p would be the opposite and suggest that this move could be the wave 4 we've discussed.

Those are the key levels now as far as I'm concerned.

Interestingly, it's quite normal after a big marubozu candle like today's for there to be a retrace half way down (a la School Remo), and that would be at 140p or thereabouts which is just above the key level of 137.5p.

There's really no way of knowing with a good deal of confidence until one of these levels gets taken out. The volume today was pretty high, though. The highest on an up day since 3rd July 2012 when the SP moved nearly 50p in the day.

PS You can see diver's 161.8% Fib extension on the hourly here, but look at that bearish engulfing candle too!



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPhourly15_05_13.gif

Syrian,

Jackozy is quite right: there is every chance this will drop back today, and could well make your target figure. My earlier response was in relation to the overall wave and not the movements within the wave. Sorry if I was misleading.

OK, we've pretty much hit 161 (159.5p) so now the question is: was that 5 waves up from 126 to 160 or 3?

The rise from 161p to 228p looked like 5 waves to me for all the tea in China but as it turned out it must have been a three.

The best test for this now is to see whether 139p holds as that's the 61.8% Fib of the move from 126 to 159.5p. 139.25p is also a support from that initial drop from 450p.

I've closed my longs at 159p anyway as that was an easy level - even if it was wrong I could have just jumped back in on a break above 161p - and taken a small short from 159.25p with a tight stop. Let's see what happens now, eh?

Hi Jackozy - Would you expect a bounce off the Gap Up from this morning?

Hi SE,

Yes, I think that's possible as it's also close to the 38.2% Fib which is at 146.84p. In my experience it's quite common for a 61.8% retrace to bounce off the 38.2% level first on the way down.

A drop to 139p would still be bullish IMHO as long as it holds.