GKP

Hi SE,

There are always option with wave counts so they should always carry a caveat emptor.

IN GKP's case the whole move from 139.25p to 260p and back to 161p is bizarre and very difficult from an EWT perspective. What seems to have clarified things is the move up from 161p to 228p which looks a lot like 5 waves (and, indeed, all the subwaves are perfect in respect of the textbook retracements). If that's the case then an initial 5 wave sequence in a trend change cannot be the last move in that direction.

As I've posted previously, it's now my belief that 161p was probably the bottom (I did earlier think that, given the 139p to 260p there could be a retrace to 139p or lower). Whether the bounce off 195p holds or not I'm not sure.

A 50% retrace is enough for a wave 2 down but what's throwing me for now is that the dip to 195p is not reflected in the hourly chart as the mid-price only went to about 197/8p. This means that the hourly chart has a less than 50% retrace which is usually not enough for a wave 2. For these reasons I still think it's possible that a retrace to 187p may still be possible. Whether it could go beyond that in the event of a large general market correction we'll probably only know with hindsight I'm afraid.

Hi F4T,

I think we're in agreement. The bounce from 195p looks like a wave B up of 2 down to me so I'm also looking towards 187p.

Cheers

I am doing BIG charts today, so here's my big GKP chart.

The chart tells me that it is well worth waiting for rising long term support, currently in the 171/172 area. SP has bounced off falling resistance twice already and GKP is weak atm.

I am looking for general weakness to appear in the broad markets to ensure my entry.

We will see eh!

F4T

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...BkbAzqHUErFUj8cyYNdp

I agree with that, especially since it may be 3 months+ before cc settled. Lots of time for market downturn.

Court case maybe over in 3 weeks time so expect some volatility on this share.
If this can finish above 210 then that would be bullish as that would finish above short term trend line and also the rsi trend line is breaking out today. obviously the day is young and things can change by the end of day.
Like i said this ones gonna get volatile soon so be aware.

Looks like it respected that downtrend perfectly today. What do you make of those 2 dips down to 195/6p remo? To me they suggest a possible descending triangle, or at least a weakened support.

210.5p was also the hourly p&f target (that p&f chart has been pretty reliable recently).

FWIW, my updated wave count of the move from 161p is now as follows:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily18_02_13.gif

In finer detail, the ABW wave looks like a zigzag (5-3-5) and, if correct, wave ABY looks like it's shaping up to be a flat (3-3-5).

I'm still expecting a test of the 187p breakout point which is also the 61.8% Fib of the 161p to 228p move. I could still be wrong on this of course. Either way, I'm waiting for either 187p or a close above 230p. Anything inbetween leaves the picture unclear IMHO.