GKP

Jackozy,

Ditto. I am afraid that I always come across negative on these boards but it is because I am over critical of everything I read. But note that I am also just as critical in resting my own views.

If I have a position or am looking to enter or exit one, I always start with the negative. What can go wrong rather than what can go right. There is far too much positive bias around IMO, especially with these oilies. On a positive note, it is this positive bias that makes stocks like GKP so profitable to trade.

I also review different indicators (not EWT I might add), but try not to muddle the decision making with too many. If you analyse too long the moment is missed, so experience generally guides well. I have my favorites which I find fairly reliable and stick to that combination. Many have been used and discarded over time. I am a big fan of fibs, candlesticks, trendlines and the main MA's. I like to keep things as simple as possible. MACD divergence is one of the most reliable indicators IMO.

I'll post a line chart so as not to upset the high / low brigade here. Fibs are drawn from extremes of course;

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...ISkg5bmL4fhPHc4Ow9Pw

Your comments are interesting regarding fibs and EWT.


Cheers
F4T

Jackozy wrote: Thanks Shotry.

Not in employment, no, but I did advanced maths and the sciences at A level and then Uni.

No other method makes sense does it? What's the point in always trying to prove yourself right? That's what I see so many chartists doing (especially wrt GKP) and what I used to do myself until I learnt that it's a sure way to failure.

Everyone can always come up with reasons supporting ther view no matter how contrived they may be but you learn nothing from this. The real beauty of doing it the other way round (null hypothesis) is that you get a win/win situation.


ATB

A question on H&S that I asked earlier (17th January) under KAZ inverted H&S:-

" Question for Remo or anyone. The H&S and Inverse H&S in the learning section are over about 4 months each, if Inverse H&S for KAZ that would be over a year, is that still valid?"

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F4T you mention a H&S for GKP in the short term, which is more reliable for H&S, short-term, 4 months or longer-term?

Obviuosly not just one indicator to be used, but just wondered what chartists views/experience is on what makes for a stronger H&S pattern?

Eric,

not sure what the textbook answer is but ot my mind the H&S pattern, by its nature can fit any time frame.

Head is a higher high as the bulls get a little excited, profit taking then occurs at the new high and when the bulls fail to make another higher high traders bail out happily and the bears take control. It is one of the most reliable chart patterns being greed followed by panic selling once it is clear that the high will not be exceeded. This could be just as common on a 5 minute chart as a monthly one IMO.

I am sure there are other opinions though.

F4T

We agree again F4T!

If you believe in the fractal nature of price charts then they should appear on any timeframe.

Perhaps of more relevance is where in the chart they appear. For me, an H&S needs to be at the top of an uptrend and vice versa for an inverse H&S. That could be the top (or bottom) of a trend on the 5 min chart or the weekly chart, just as long as it's not in the middle of a trend. In that respect, they should be near important supports or resistances (on the relevant timeframe) or have clear divergences at the heads.

Jackozy - If the DOW tanks and takes the markets with it - how does this impact your Wave count on GKP? Does this bring 161 back into play?

Things are getting interesting again. Lovely dark cloud cover yesterday after the indices finally submitted to a much needed retrace, which is not over yet. Once S&P broke 1505 the rest was just exhaustion.

With GKP we back tested the neckline of the H&S on the last rise from 195 spike down (50% retrace of 161 move) and now everything points nicely down. First target still 187 and rising long term support is now in the 169/170 area so traders can forget about 161 IMO. It should be history.

If long term support at 170 does break then so will 161 and I would expect at least 141, but I don't think that will happen unless the CC gloes very tits up.

So, in summary, this is a sell down to minimum 187 and a strong buy at 170 if we get there. I think we might just do that as I see the indices giving back some more and GKP is always weak in that environment.

Cheers
F4T