GKP

Trendfriend wrote: Jackozy,

Just noticed something on the long term GKP chart.

I see a gap(i've tried to show it with the horizontal lines). Sorry about the dodgy chart, but the gap is around 55p roughly.

My question is this, if we take your Big bad Bear option(LOL), its not a million miles from this gap, right?

Not saying we are going there, but say a bad result in the court case, then possibly.
Just wondered if you had noticed this gap before?
Here is the link
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...bd80=&symbol=L%5EGKP

B.Regs,
Trendfriend.

Hi Trendfriend,

Yes, there are gaps at 52.75p, 31.25p and 13p. It's really quite amazing that even the 53p one is being discussed lol!

Here are the weekly charts showing the options I discussed last night. First the bull option:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...lloption26_04_13.gif

We'd normally look for the 61.8% Fib to hold for a wave 2. Sometimes it'll drop to the 78.6% Fib, but there's usually a full retrace if that goes which is why I think this option is unlikely. So what does the bear count look like?



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...aroption26_04_13.gif

Yes, I know that there are some unbelievable possibilities in here, but the whole saga has been unreal so you never know. Corrective waves (ABCs) have 2 basic forms: 3-3-5 and 5-3-5. There are many complicated versions of these, but they're the basic forms.

The above bear count assumes that 450p was the top of a major wave 1 and we're looking at the wave 2 retrace of the 4.5p to 450p move. That has the 61.8% Fib at 175p which has already gone and the 78.6% Fib at 100p. If it closes below that 100p Fib then it opens up a possibility of a full retrace as described above. Remember, this is pure technical theory taking no account of fundamentals whatsoever.

Going back to the basic corrective forms, we can easily see how the drop to 139p could be a 3 wave move for wave A, then we have a clear 3 wave move up to 260p for a possible B. We'd then (normally) be looking for a 5 wave move down for wave C. During this move, we'd expect wave 1 of C down to be followed by a 61.8% retrace upwards for wave 2. That's exactly what happened when it hit 228p. Wave 3 sometimes comes in at the 161.8% extension of wave 1 projected from the wave 2 high and that's shown on the chart. A 38.2% retrace of that move would constitute a wave 4 up and then a final wave 5 down which, in this purely hypothetical case, could give a target at c. 29p, right near that 31p gap.

I realise that this is a very emotive share so please, please take all the above only as the theoretical discussion it's intended to be. Pretend it's not GKP and just consider the above as a discussion of wave analysis.

Remember also that corrective waves are usually very complex and unpredictable (wave 3 of C may get nowhere near the 161.8% extension for example) so none of the above may happen in reality.

Today's action so far is not suggestive of a reversal yesterday but the day is still young. We've already discussed the safest way to go long on this so until then it's best not to try and catch the bottom. That's not to say don't buy support, but DO make sure you use stops if you try that.

If anyone wants to look at Ichimoku chart or P&F chart analysis on this then I'd be happy to join in. Best of luck folks.

PS If you think those bull option waves look out of synch size-wise then look at the log scale chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...logchart26_04_13.gif

Nice, WS

That whole middle section: greed, thrill, anxiety, panic, more panic, denial and capitulation were all clear to see as they happened. Amazing the power of money, eh?

Indeed J - looks like it's happening again - the power & interpretation of Psychology vs Price is fundamental...

where the mass (PI base) are herded to some key levels, it's often best to look at another indicative levels and as we approach the end of the month - must keep an eye on the monthly chart and where it closes.

as you know i expect the market to correct or they have been for a while - complex and my view is B completed yesterday and were now in the early stages of C down, that my preferred count and i'm already positioned, i have an alt which is still bullish but wont give that any thought unless us markets make new highs and close abv em. if this is indeed a C wave down then what further impact will it have on this share.....

hopefully investors in this will get there rewards eventually, perhaps this is the last saloon - price action reflected in candlesticks will start giving some clue to a bounce, volumes, +div on lager timeframes will be the watch for here on in.....bottom picking now after key breaks comes with a wealth warning.

Completely agree with everything you say there, WS.

I also have the markets having completed B up yesterday so 5 waves down for C and then up we go. We're still due a backtest of 14198 for the Dow but, again, that's a bit obvious so my preference would be a drop to the Dow's trendline up from the Nov low which stands at 14050 today though it does coincide with 14198 on 10th May. We'll see how it goes.

PS Hope you enjoyed your ride on gold and kept those shorts open all the way. I still think that's going to make a further low and had 1265 as a possibility if I remember our discussion correctly.

haha, stupidly i closed after holding for so long, was well pissed.. then re-entered on the break down, i have no position in gold - looking to reshort @ 1550 ish but then i'll have have target $1000 for a bear market low