GKP

For the first five way move to be an impulsive wave it must contain three divergences in the RSI: one in the wave 3; one in the wave 5, and one in the overall wave structure between waves 3 and 5. This, so far as I can see, is not the case in this instance and therefore this is not an impulsive wave structure, hence the wave A label. I can only label what I see. Just because this is the first wave of this company's trading doesn't make it a wave 1. The only thing that can make it a wave 1 is having the correct structure. I would suggest the timing of the inception of this company is more likely to dictate the initial wave structure rather than the company itself: i.e. the movement of the market in general.
This is all just my way of thinking and labeling so please feel free to disagree. All will be revealed in due course

"I just wish I could get the whole sequence up to be a 5 wave move which conforms to the rules"...

I agree Jackozy and we assess and re-assess, it's left me scratching my head for sure - so i've been looking at all time frames extensively, price, wave structures and known & uncommon fib ratio relationships and fundamental aspects to try and piece this mess together.

I maybe completely out here but this structure i'm looking at fits quite well and seems plausible for several reasons.....it's lengthy so stay with me.

Need you and several others familiar at EW that are willing to maintain dialogue and provide feedback and an objective opinion....you know me from our discussions, i look at all things and dont do true EW but remain objective to it's discipline & adhere to some key rules. from a fundamental perspective - anybody else that's willing to share (in private) on info/rumours that most general public are not aware of (to-re-assess against price...) i.e takeover, was there an offer,has it been agreed, indi article or aob that's relevant .. big ask i know but hey if you dont ask you dont get ! . yet here i am spending my time writing this, dunno why. maybe i just hate seeing PI's get shafted or maybe i'm just a good bloke willing to share my time to help or just love looking at charts lol In any case this what this great site setup by Remo & ronnie is all abt - to help, support and guide.....i digress or do i....

ok so here it is......

I believe W1 of larger degree wave completed at 202 and what we have here is an irregular correction, which in EW is extremely bullish when it completes...from my perspective, looking at this structure and that GKP lifecycle chart i posted ( greed, fear panic) it coincides perfectly and remain within the true sense of EW imo. Time, Price, Behaviour of the crowd.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Lifecyclev2.JPG





so here is my assessment:





w1 = 4.5p - 21p
w2 = 21p - 10p @ 61.8% of w1
w3 = 10p - 130p - current holding as support - coincidence ?
w4 = 130p - 64p - coincidence that retraced to a previous minute wave 4 of w3 level early - mid sept 09 ? also 57% @ 61p & 61.8% @ 56p (that price range number again - see previous post) - jackozy, your ref to july2010 candle – wave 4 complete & start of wave 5.
w5 = 64p - 202p.

the abv sequence completes imho a larger degree W1. what is and has been occurring is imo an irregular correction W2 of larger degree wave

An irregular correction occurs when the end of the B wave exceeds the starting point of the A wave ( this would be 202p). This almost always occurs in strong trends, whether up or down. In other words, the trend is so strong that any move in its direction is met with a thrust of buying or selling. (exxon rumor/bid, indi article, denial, Court case) Irregular tops can occur in zigzags or flats, but are the strongest when they occur in flats.

i hope your still with me and not falling a sleep lol zzzzzzz....

Now the start from 202p to W2 irregular complex correction.

Major A completed @ 88p ( 202p>112p (a)>183p (b)>88p (c)) aug2011 lows.
Major B completed @ 450p ( 88p>190p (a)>121p (b)>450 (c)) – There is no rule how high an irregular wave B can extend from start of (A) but usually they cap .282% fib .

Some interesting observations on this & fib relationship to price – ref weekly chart & monthly charts.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP...%20_Irreg%20_Alt.JPG
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_irreg_Alt.JPG





A fib extension from 202p (major A high) @

161% = 273p – became support for minute 4 of c of B (16 jan 12)and became resistance 26th march 12.
223% =343p – Monthly chart – body of candle comes in pretty dam close to this price( feb12) and weekly & monthly chart – breakdown occurred 05 March 12– top body of candle and price
261% = 387p – exactly the top of the weekly candle 06 feb12
282% =410p - exactly the top body of the weekly candle 30 Jan 12
And then we have final thrust and exhaustion bar to 450p that failed to be supported.

Major C in progress right now… where will it end ?

Well if this is correction is indeed a flat we can now project downside targets:

Either wave C will complete @ the low Major A @88p or make slightly lower low to the previous 4 low – there that number again J @ 64p.

Alternatively this can end up being a failed flat:
occurs when the C wave fails to reach the ending point of the A wave (@88p). the market is so strong, that it takes off before the correction has fully completed – news pending ?

there is clear support in the region of 126-131 or @minor a of A @ 106-113p…. hmmmmm

Funny isnt it - if there are people in the know (smart money) that a price has been agreed, or abt to be, or is some fundamental news due- then wouldnt it be appropriate to get the price down as low as possible to fill your boots again?

I could be completely wrong here, but clearly the structure fits well in my eyes here taking into account many factors – if you don’t try and you don’t get nothing in life, at the end of the day we just need to see how this wave develops from here on in....

This is all in my opinion of course, any feedback & opinions, debate welcomed....

In your weekly chart:-

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_irreg_Alt.JPG

I only ever see 5 waves 13p to 450p, followed by the current correction waves.

The 4.5p to 21p and 21p to 10p is still part of the downtrend
The breakout occured on oil find day 6/8/09, IMO.
450p is definately a wave five peak.

As I posted yesterday this results in not much of a difference in the possible bottom:-

---

Wave 1 4.5p to 450p, -61.8% 175p, -78.6% 100p.

Wave 1 13p to 450p, -61.8% 180p, -78.6% 106p, assuming breakout of downtrend on 6/8/2009 RNS oil found day, an alternative view, but very similar to J's Wave 1.

---

Not ruling out a large intra-day spike down (selling climax - on bad news).

thanks eric - that's what i was or had been thinking, but always had that doubt and current move confirms that it may not be the case 5 waves up imo - however with that view -

1.there is clear overlap of wave 4 entering into wave 1 territory which is a no no in EW rules....

also we look at the time GKP floated - its started downtendng was it made a high of 98p in an abc to the lows of 4.5

26th june 2006 - a @ 43p , feb 05 2007 - b @ 75p, 16th march 2009 - c @ 4.5p

2. again wave 2's cannot exceed wave 1.
3. C wave up to complete B major what i have done - is 5 waves

all the three ABC corrections wave C subdivides into a five wave pattern, or an impulse wave.

An irregular is made up of a 3-3-5 sequence in which wave B exceeds the start of wave A and waves C moves close to or beyond the end of wave A.

Major A - 3 waves, Major B - 3 waves - Major C - 1,2,3 current with 4 & 5 waves to follow.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_monthlyv1.JPG

regards WS

Jackozy, WS, and all,

I feel that I have lost in wave count. But I have looked into RSI on the chart below, My chart also are same marked on WS chart about this RSI values, which is 26 Apr 9:32 and 28 Apr 12:30.








We can see that RSI (14) on 28 June 2012 is below 30, sp = 139.25p, next 1-2 days sp jumped. On 24 Dec 2012, RSI below 30, sp= 164p, next day, sp jumped. 26 Apr 13, candle is doji, next day inside as Jackozy said. The RSI was not down, but maintain 23ish. I hope that the same pattern repeat, but at least I hope there is slight sp up in short term.

I heard the rumour the good news is on the way. Lol

ogh

Amending:

25/04/13, candle doji,not 26/04/13.

Sorry.